Football online gambling
In order to create an edge over the house, you need to be in tune with all of the important trends, statistics and news with Football online gambling
Welcome to footballonlinegambling.net, the informational site for those that love to gamble on football. In order to create an edge over the house, you need to be in tune with all of the important trends, statistics and news.
By monitoring our site throughout the season, you will have access to all of that key information as well as all of the spreads, information on line movements and in depth analysis on all of the big games..
By monitoring our site throughout the season, you will have access to all of that key information as well as all of the spreads, information on line movements and in depth analysis on all of the big games..
News
FOOTBALL BETTING FOR BODOG EUROPE
2009-06-04
European licensed Bodog brand will operate on Orbis sportsbetting software
With the resolution of the Bodog brand patents dispute last (April) month (see previous InfoPowa reports) the European licensed site at Bodoglife.co.uk is re-routing to the main international brand and gearing up for a busy European sportsbetting season.
Last month, md Keith McDonnell, hinted at the future direction of the brand when he said: "As the 'Bodog' brand licensee for Europe, we are ecstatic to see the return of http://www.bodog.com. Working with the Morris Mohawk Gaming Group and the other licensees, geo-targeting will be used to ensure visitors outside of the MMGG's (North American) territory are directed to the correct site, including ours (http://www.bodoglife.co.uk ). This way, the marketing efforts of every licensee to promote http://www.bodog.com benefit us all, ultimately reinforcing and strengthening the global brand. It will absolutely be a win-win-win solution."
McDonnell and his staff have been busy making the operation more suited to the European market by engaging with Orbis - which was brought in to sort out William Hill's troubled in-house software last year - on new software. The goal is to be fully geared up in terms of technology and content in good time for the strt of the 2009-2010 football season.
The company will be aligned with similarly licensed entities in Canada (MMGG) and the Phillipines (Haydock Sports) as reported previously in InfoPowa.
McDonnell acknowledges that Europe is a tough and highly competitive arena, but has said that his marketers will leverage associated sports tournaments like its Ultimate Fighting Championship to target different and in some cases new demographics.
NFL SELECTIVE ABOUT BETTING MORALITY?
2009-05-25
New moves may be lucrative, but dilute the moral positioning
One of online gambling's most implacable foes - the US National Football League - came under fire from Associated Press over the weekend for its latest moves to increase revenues for owners.
After years of moralising about the dangers to sport of allowing betting on games, the NFL is now allowing its team owners to position (for a cut of the action) team logos on state lottery scratch tickets despite boycott and legal threats directed at the governor of Delaware over his plans for a sports lottery (see previous InfoPowa reports).
The Patriots and the Redskins have been quick to jump into the new revenue stream, signing deals with the Massachusetts and Virginia state lotteries respectively.
The AP story comments that: "...the league that is so terrified of gambling that it refused to allow a Las Vegas commercial during the Super Bowl a few years back is now in the gambling business itself. Aware that it can sell only so many $300 tickets to its games, the NFL has figured out a way to get a cut of some of the biggest gambling operations around.
"No word yet on whether there will be [lottery] kiosks next to the beer stands at the stadiums, but that won't likely be far behind. The one thing the NFL does know how to do is promote its product."
The article considers the apparent hypocrisy of the League's position on the lottery logo projects following its opposition to the sports lottery in Delaware, which has been approved and signed off, and now awaits state Supreme Court guidance on what betting is permissible.
"That apparently crosses the line for the NFL, whose stance against betting on its games has always been a bit ironic considering gamblers helped found the league and the evolution of point spreads helped make it so wildly popular," the piece opines. "So attorneys for the League were in the courtroom the other day arguing before the Delaware Supreme Court that betting on NFL games should not be allowed.
"Their reasoning? Bettors might have too good a chance to win."
The Massachusetts State Lottery, where the Patriots tickets will be sold, already runs a Boston Red Sox game, which this year offers prizes of up to $1 million for 10 lucky buyers. The official odds show that one out of every 4.5 tickets is a winner. But odds of actually winning something over a player's original investment are more like one in eight because 10 percent of the payoffs merely refund the five dollar betting stake.
Associated Press sums up its report by commenting: "In the end, gambling is gambling. And now that the NFL is in the gambling business, it has lost its right to the moral high ground on the issue.
"Lotteries are the worst form of gambling imaginable. They prey on the weakest people and exploit their dreams.
"The next time the NFL screams about sports betting, remember who is sharing its bed."
NFL: Betting the NFL Draft (4:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-04-26
For professional football fans, weeks and months of speculation come to a head on Saturday. The first pick of the NFL draft is set for 4 PM ET, and from there folks can start truly getting ready for the next football season. Of course, the draft isn’t just about picking players. The recent development of betting opportunities available for certain players and/or picks has added to the intrigue. Read on as we review some of the options available at Sportsbook.com, offering some insight and opinions.
For fans of specific teams, you hope the general manager can fill the needs of your team and they can start improving right from day one. For many, this is the best kind of reality TV, as just when you believe will occur and the people paid to tell you what is going to happen, well faster than you can say “Brady Quinn” something out of the blue changes that would even throw off Heidi Montag. With this annual event going more prime time, the sports bettor can place wagers on a variety of options at various sportsbooks and have a little fun while sippin’ a few cold ones with friends.
The draft itself will hinge on two things that will happen early. At the moment, Detroit is trying to get deal done with Mathew Stafford. If for some reason that doesn’t work out, don’t be surprised if Lions take tackle Jason Smith and trade for quarterback Derrick Alexander of Cleveland setting of an unforeseen chain of events.
If the first three picks go as planned with Stafford, Smith and Aaron Curry, Seattle controls the board and whom they choose will have trickle affect on the next 15 to 20 picks. Please note, all plays are based on normal events, trades and other outside factors are beyond my control. All listed action is courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (-350) - Under 2.5 (+225)
The safest play is Over with Stafford and Mark Sanchez a given, however I’m hearing rumblings Josh Freeman might be in free fall and have Aaron Rodgers and Quinn moment, possibly all the way to second round. Still hard to fathom he would fall that far in a draft not loaded with extraordinary talent early.
Number of Running Backs taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (+120) - Under 2.5 ( -160)
Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells will be taken. The wild card is Donald Brown out of Connecticut. A number of the draft experts have his going to Arizona, but a Cardinals insider suggested to me defensive tackle or tight end is more important and they will look at finding this year’s Steve Slaton in round two. That’s enough to make me play Under.
Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One
Over 6 (-170) - Under 6 (+130)
This is a really tough call, since six seems to be the right number with Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, and Darrius Heyward-Bey all certain and Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt and Percy Harvin all liked by different teams on the back end of first round. I could put on chicken suit and pass, but I’ll say the latter three are all playmakers and this prop goes Over.
Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One
Over 6.5 (-105) – Under 6.5 (-135)
Playing the Under here and feel strongly this one is accurate. Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Andre Smith and Eben Britton are locks. A few reports have William Beatty well liked by Minnesota and Pittsburgh might draft a center to cause a defeat, however don’t see it happening and going with original feelings.
What will Michael Crabtree’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)
Crabtree is arguably the most NFL ready player and the last spot he should fall to is Oakland at seven. Play Under.
What will Andre Smith’s Draft Position be?
Over 6.5 (Even) – Under 6.5 (-130)
In December this was an easy answer and the Under would have -130 at 5.5. But because of several gaffes by Smith and other quality tackles available with less baggage, Smith has become Over play, with Washington a likely destination.
What will Mark Sanchez’s Draft Position be?
Over 10.5 (+160) – Under 10.5 (-220)
I’d wait until Saturday morning on this prop. If Stafford goes to Detroit, probably safe Seattle takes Sanchez. If those events don’t take place, watch out. Seattle could still pass on the USC signal caller even if Stafford is chosen by Lions; however this is supposed to be quarterback-driven league right?
What will Jeremy Maclin’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (-140) – Under 7.5 (even)
This has to be Over, unless Al Davis is more goofy than believed. Only way this loses is if Cleveland makes late deal and moves Braylon Edwards.
What will Knowshon Moreno’s Draft Position be?
Over 21.5 (+110) – Under 21.5 (-150)
Hard to believe New Orleans, San Diego and Philadelphia would pass on the best running back coming out of college. Play Under.
What will Chris Well’s Draft Position be?
Over 15.5 (-170) – Under 15.5 (+130)
New Orleans and San Diego are the presumed destinations and if I were GM, I’d pass, because I see this guy out of the league in four years with one injury after another. Trying to wager with my head and not my heart, the Saints need a big back to compliment Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Play Under.
What will BJ Raji’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)
Cleveland needs help in defensive line and Raji is perfect fit at fifth slot.
Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st?
Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) +150
Chris Wells (Ohio State) -200
Checked in with friend Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com for this prop and he offered his opinion. “I see Knowshon Moreno going ahead of Chris Wells. Moreno is quicker and more competitive than Wells, who has been sidelined too often with injuries. Moreno should go in the middle of the 1st round whereas Wells will likely be nabbed late in the round. In fact, don't be surprised if Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy goes ahead of Wells.”
Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st ?
James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) +175
Clay Matthews (USC) -250
At the beginning of the year, this might have been even bet, not anymore. Unless Detroit takes Laurinaitis at 20, a few draftniks I spoke to are no longer even sure if the Ohio State linebacker will be chosen in first round. Play Mathews.
Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 7.5 (+160) – Under 7.5 (-200)
In studying the draft from several different angles, just can’t come up with the eight player to make this an Over play.
Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5 (-170) – Under 5 (+130)
The swing player seems to be Nicks from North Carolina and I believe he is picked, probably by the Giants, making this Over play.
Total Big 12 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)
I have six players even if Freeman would happen to fall out of the first round. Defensive tackle Evander Hood out of Missouri looks ticketed for Indianapolis more and more. Make the move on Over.
Total Pac 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)
Have to play Under, with the four from USC and Britton from Arizona. Centers Max Unger or Alex Mack could blow up my bet late, but I don’t believe so.
Total Big Ten Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-120) – Under 4.5 (-120)
This is easily the hardest of the conferences, with only three virtually guaranteed spots. Laurinaitis is likely and Vontae Davis has first round ability with questionable maturity. Receiver Brian Robiske could be surprise with his stock rising with particular teams. A hesitant Over play.
Patrick White (West Virginia) - Will he be Drafted on Day 1 of the Draft (Rounds 1 and 2)
Yes (-150) – No (+110)
Though many NFL teams are enamored with White’s athletic ability, his stock has fallen as first day choice from -200 to -150 in just days. With this negative trend, betting No.
NFL: Super Bowl XLIII: Looking back to look ahead
2009-02-01
Tampa Bay will host this year’s Super Bowl festivities on Sunday, as the NFL prepares to crown another champion. In no other sports game, or should I say event, are the stakes higher than they are in each winter’s Super Bowl. Of course, “stakes” is a good word to use in describing the big game, as the words gambling and Super Bowl are practically synonymous. Whether its office square pools, pull tickets, or any one of a number of various side, total, or prop possibilities, if you don’t have action on the game, you are part of a sparse minority. You can of course, get all the action you thirst for, by visiting the LIVE ODDS page from now until kickoff.
One of the big problems that presents itself each year for the Super Bowl game is the fact that the vast number of amateurs partaking in the festivities causes oddsmakers to adjust their line-setting policies accordingly. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. For example, by all set of figures that StatFox had a year ago, it was estimated that New England should have been favored by somewhere in the range of 9-10.5 points last year over the Giants. Instead, if you wanted to back the first team ever to go 16-0 in the regular season, you were forced to lay 12.5 points. Obviously this margin didn’t make a difference as New York won, but it just goes to show how things can change for this biggest of all football contests. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side.
The other challenge that faces bettors for the big game is that the means for successfully handicapping it change significantly from anything seen in the regular season or the playoffs up till this point. In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. With that said, it does pay off to do your homework. Nobody likes watching the game on the big screen with a know-it-all friend or family member who really didn’t prepare and is now irritable because the game isn’t unfolding as planned.
Hopefully, with all of the coverage we’re offering for Sunday’s Pittsburgh-Arizona showdown, you will at least go into the betting process a prepared and educated fan. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 42 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to get a better feel for what this year’s contest might offer. I call it “Looking back to look ahead.”
I’ve divided the analysis into a few different sections. The first one is looking at the stats generated in past Super Bowl games and how they have reflected the outcome. If you see any not-so-obvious matchup differences that might be exploited on Sunday by the Steelers or Cardinals, perhaps the angles offered there could be the golden nuggets. The second portion is past trends and systems. How do favorites or underdogs do? Does either conference have an edge as how it relates to this year’s game? Do the team records make a difference? These are just a few of the ideas I explore. Finally, the third part recaps some of the successful overall playoff handicapping angles that will be in place for Sunday. If you need even more, there’s a handy chart of past Super Bowl games with pointspreads and stats that you can take advantage of. Enjoy the information everyone, and be sure to take in all that StatFox, the Platinum Sheet, Sportsform & CPFN have to offer this week so that you’re fully prepared to come up big on February 1st!
Super Bowl Stat Angles
The teams have studies each other for two weeks, so they know nearly everything there is to know about their opponent. The players are all professionals that have reached the sport’s pinnacle. There doesn’t figure to be any overwhelming physical mismatches. Therefore, execution proves to be the most pivotal factor in the Super Bowl, more so than any other game simply because of what is at stake. Dictionary.com defines the word “execute” as to carry out; accomplish. In football lingo, this means controlling the line of scrimmage, passing the ball efficiently, and limiting mistakes. In the Super Bowl, the team that accomplishes these goals nearly always comes out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-7 SU & 31-8-3 ATS (78.9%).
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 37-5 SU & 32-7-3 ATS (81.6%).
* In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just three times SU and six times ATS (84.2%). Coincidentally, the last two times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last two world championships.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-11 SU & 29-10-3 ATS.
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-1 SU & 31-5-1 ATS. In ’08, New York ran for more yards, passed for more yards per attempt, and possessed the ball longer than New England.
* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. For those of you intrigued, the only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots, further indicating that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Like most of the other major sports, the route to become a champion in the NFL has changed dramatically in recent years. I cite the turning point as Pittsburgh’s 2006 Super Bowl run in which it won four road games as the AFC’s #6 seed to emerge as champion. Since then, we’ve seen improbable sports world titles from the Miami Heat, the Colts & Giants, the Cardinals & Phillies in baseball, and Carolina in the NHL. It has seemed in recent years that the regular season has come to mean very little. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs.
With that caveat in place, I present the following historical Super Bowl records for various pointspread, total, and scoring scenarios.
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.
* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.
* The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.
* The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco’s rout win over San Diego in the ’95 game.
* The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
* There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
* Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).
Over/Under Trends
* There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.
* Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.
* The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.
* The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles that have fared well in past playoff games and have continued to hold their ground in ’09, here are three different systems that will be in play on Sunday. If you’re wondering why the list shortened so dramatically, recall that many of the angles revealed in the wildcard, divisional, and championship rounds hinged on home/road dichotomy, and with the Super Bowl played on a neutral field, those trends don’t apply. In any case, Pittsburgh will try to capitalize on its run stuffing advantage, while Arizona will look to neutralize that edge with its prolific passing game.
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 53-39 ATS (57.6%).
Record in ’09: 8-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Pittsburgh
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 21-15 ATS (58.3%)
Record in ’09: 3-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 23-16 ATS (59.0%)
Record in ’09: 4-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!
2009-06-04
European licensed Bodog brand will operate on Orbis sportsbetting software
With the resolution of the Bodog brand patents dispute last (April) month (see previous InfoPowa reports) the European licensed site at Bodoglife.co.uk is re-routing to the main international brand and gearing up for a busy European sportsbetting season.
Last month, md Keith McDonnell, hinted at the future direction of the brand when he said: "As the 'Bodog' brand licensee for Europe, we are ecstatic to see the return of http://www.bodog.com. Working with the Morris Mohawk Gaming Group and the other licensees, geo-targeting will be used to ensure visitors outside of the MMGG's (North American) territory are directed to the correct site, including ours (http://www.bodoglife.co.uk ). This way, the marketing efforts of every licensee to promote http://www.bodog.com benefit us all, ultimately reinforcing and strengthening the global brand. It will absolutely be a win-win-win solution."
McDonnell and his staff have been busy making the operation more suited to the European market by engaging with Orbis - which was brought in to sort out William Hill's troubled in-house software last year - on new software. The goal is to be fully geared up in terms of technology and content in good time for the strt of the 2009-2010 football season.
The company will be aligned with similarly licensed entities in Canada (MMGG) and the Phillipines (Haydock Sports) as reported previously in InfoPowa.
McDonnell acknowledges that Europe is a tough and highly competitive arena, but has said that his marketers will leverage associated sports tournaments like its Ultimate Fighting Championship to target different and in some cases new demographics.
NFL SELECTIVE ABOUT BETTING MORALITY?
2009-05-25
New moves may be lucrative, but dilute the moral positioning
One of online gambling's most implacable foes - the US National Football League - came under fire from Associated Press over the weekend for its latest moves to increase revenues for owners.
After years of moralising about the dangers to sport of allowing betting on games, the NFL is now allowing its team owners to position (for a cut of the action) team logos on state lottery scratch tickets despite boycott and legal threats directed at the governor of Delaware over his plans for a sports lottery (see previous InfoPowa reports).
The Patriots and the Redskins have been quick to jump into the new revenue stream, signing deals with the Massachusetts and Virginia state lotteries respectively.
The AP story comments that: "...the league that is so terrified of gambling that it refused to allow a Las Vegas commercial during the Super Bowl a few years back is now in the gambling business itself. Aware that it can sell only so many $300 tickets to its games, the NFL has figured out a way to get a cut of some of the biggest gambling operations around.
"No word yet on whether there will be [lottery] kiosks next to the beer stands at the stadiums, but that won't likely be far behind. The one thing the NFL does know how to do is promote its product."
The article considers the apparent hypocrisy of the League's position on the lottery logo projects following its opposition to the sports lottery in Delaware, which has been approved and signed off, and now awaits state Supreme Court guidance on what betting is permissible.
"That apparently crosses the line for the NFL, whose stance against betting on its games has always been a bit ironic considering gamblers helped found the league and the evolution of point spreads helped make it so wildly popular," the piece opines. "So attorneys for the League were in the courtroom the other day arguing before the Delaware Supreme Court that betting on NFL games should not be allowed.
"Their reasoning? Bettors might have too good a chance to win."
The Massachusetts State Lottery, where the Patriots tickets will be sold, already runs a Boston Red Sox game, which this year offers prizes of up to $1 million for 10 lucky buyers. The official odds show that one out of every 4.5 tickets is a winner. But odds of actually winning something over a player's original investment are more like one in eight because 10 percent of the payoffs merely refund the five dollar betting stake.
Associated Press sums up its report by commenting: "In the end, gambling is gambling. And now that the NFL is in the gambling business, it has lost its right to the moral high ground on the issue.
"Lotteries are the worst form of gambling imaginable. They prey on the weakest people and exploit their dreams.
"The next time the NFL screams about sports betting, remember who is sharing its bed."
NFL: Betting the NFL Draft (4:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-04-26
For professional football fans, weeks and months of speculation come to a head on Saturday. The first pick of the NFL draft is set for 4 PM ET, and from there folks can start truly getting ready for the next football season. Of course, the draft isn’t just about picking players. The recent development of betting opportunities available for certain players and/or picks has added to the intrigue. Read on as we review some of the options available at Sportsbook.com, offering some insight and opinions.
For fans of specific teams, you hope the general manager can fill the needs of your team and they can start improving right from day one. For many, this is the best kind of reality TV, as just when you believe will occur and the people paid to tell you what is going to happen, well faster than you can say “Brady Quinn” something out of the blue changes that would even throw off Heidi Montag. With this annual event going more prime time, the sports bettor can place wagers on a variety of options at various sportsbooks and have a little fun while sippin’ a few cold ones with friends.
The draft itself will hinge on two things that will happen early. At the moment, Detroit is trying to get deal done with Mathew Stafford. If for some reason that doesn’t work out, don’t be surprised if Lions take tackle Jason Smith and trade for quarterback Derrick Alexander of Cleveland setting of an unforeseen chain of events.
If the first three picks go as planned with Stafford, Smith and Aaron Curry, Seattle controls the board and whom they choose will have trickle affect on the next 15 to 20 picks. Please note, all plays are based on normal events, trades and other outside factors are beyond my control. All listed action is courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (-350) - Under 2.5 (+225)
The safest play is Over with Stafford and Mark Sanchez a given, however I’m hearing rumblings Josh Freeman might be in free fall and have Aaron Rodgers and Quinn moment, possibly all the way to second round. Still hard to fathom he would fall that far in a draft not loaded with extraordinary talent early.
Number of Running Backs taken in Round One
Over 2.5 (+120) - Under 2.5 ( -160)
Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells will be taken. The wild card is Donald Brown out of Connecticut. A number of the draft experts have his going to Arizona, but a Cardinals insider suggested to me defensive tackle or tight end is more important and they will look at finding this year’s Steve Slaton in round two. That’s enough to make me play Under.
Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One
Over 6 (-170) - Under 6 (+130)
This is a really tough call, since six seems to be the right number with Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, and Darrius Heyward-Bey all certain and Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt and Percy Harvin all liked by different teams on the back end of first round. I could put on chicken suit and pass, but I’ll say the latter three are all playmakers and this prop goes Over.
Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One
Over 6.5 (-105) – Under 6.5 (-135)
Playing the Under here and feel strongly this one is accurate. Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Andre Smith and Eben Britton are locks. A few reports have William Beatty well liked by Minnesota and Pittsburgh might draft a center to cause a defeat, however don’t see it happening and going with original feelings.
What will Michael Crabtree’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)
Crabtree is arguably the most NFL ready player and the last spot he should fall to is Oakland at seven. Play Under.
What will Andre Smith’s Draft Position be?
Over 6.5 (Even) – Under 6.5 (-130)
In December this was an easy answer and the Under would have -130 at 5.5. But because of several gaffes by Smith and other quality tackles available with less baggage, Smith has become Over play, with Washington a likely destination.
What will Mark Sanchez’s Draft Position be?
Over 10.5 (+160) – Under 10.5 (-220)
I’d wait until Saturday morning on this prop. If Stafford goes to Detroit, probably safe Seattle takes Sanchez. If those events don’t take place, watch out. Seattle could still pass on the USC signal caller even if Stafford is chosen by Lions; however this is supposed to be quarterback-driven league right?
What will Jeremy Maclin’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (-140) – Under 7.5 (even)
This has to be Over, unless Al Davis is more goofy than believed. Only way this loses is if Cleveland makes late deal and moves Braylon Edwards.
What will Knowshon Moreno’s Draft Position be?
Over 21.5 (+110) – Under 21.5 (-150)
Hard to believe New Orleans, San Diego and Philadelphia would pass on the best running back coming out of college. Play Under.
What will Chris Well’s Draft Position be?
Over 15.5 (-170) – Under 15.5 (+130)
New Orleans and San Diego are the presumed destinations and if I were GM, I’d pass, because I see this guy out of the league in four years with one injury after another. Trying to wager with my head and not my heart, the Saints need a big back to compliment Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Play Under.
What will BJ Raji’s Draft Position be?
Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)
Cleveland needs help in defensive line and Raji is perfect fit at fifth slot.
Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st?
Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) +150
Chris Wells (Ohio State) -200
Checked in with friend Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com for this prop and he offered his opinion. “I see Knowshon Moreno going ahead of Chris Wells. Moreno is quicker and more competitive than Wells, who has been sidelined too often with injuries. Moreno should go in the middle of the 1st round whereas Wells will likely be nabbed late in the round. In fact, don't be surprised if Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy goes ahead of Wells.”
Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st ?
James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) +175
Clay Matthews (USC) -250
At the beginning of the year, this might have been even bet, not anymore. Unless Detroit takes Laurinaitis at 20, a few draftniks I spoke to are no longer even sure if the Ohio State linebacker will be chosen in first round. Play Mathews.
Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 7.5 (+160) – Under 7.5 (-200)
In studying the draft from several different angles, just can’t come up with the eight player to make this an Over play.
Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5 (-170) – Under 5 (+130)
The swing player seems to be Nicks from North Carolina and I believe he is picked, probably by the Giants, making this Over play.
Total Big 12 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)
I have six players even if Freeman would happen to fall out of the first round. Defensive tackle Evander Hood out of Missouri looks ticketed for Indianapolis more and more. Make the move on Over.
Total Pac 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)
Have to play Under, with the four from USC and Britton from Arizona. Centers Max Unger or Alex Mack could blow up my bet late, but I don’t believe so.
Total Big Ten Players Drafted in the 1st Round
Over 4.5 (-120) – Under 4.5 (-120)
This is easily the hardest of the conferences, with only three virtually guaranteed spots. Laurinaitis is likely and Vontae Davis has first round ability with questionable maturity. Receiver Brian Robiske could be surprise with his stock rising with particular teams. A hesitant Over play.
Patrick White (West Virginia) - Will he be Drafted on Day 1 of the Draft (Rounds 1 and 2)
Yes (-150) – No (+110)
Though many NFL teams are enamored with White’s athletic ability, his stock has fallen as first day choice from -200 to -150 in just days. With this negative trend, betting No.
NFL: Super Bowl XLIII: Looking back to look ahead
2009-02-01
Tampa Bay will host this year’s Super Bowl festivities on Sunday, as the NFL prepares to crown another champion. In no other sports game, or should I say event, are the stakes higher than they are in each winter’s Super Bowl. Of course, “stakes” is a good word to use in describing the big game, as the words gambling and Super Bowl are practically synonymous. Whether its office square pools, pull tickets, or any one of a number of various side, total, or prop possibilities, if you don’t have action on the game, you are part of a sparse minority. You can of course, get all the action you thirst for, by visiting the LIVE ODDS page from now until kickoff.
One of the big problems that presents itself each year for the Super Bowl game is the fact that the vast number of amateurs partaking in the festivities causes oddsmakers to adjust their line-setting policies accordingly. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. For example, by all set of figures that StatFox had a year ago, it was estimated that New England should have been favored by somewhere in the range of 9-10.5 points last year over the Giants. Instead, if you wanted to back the first team ever to go 16-0 in the regular season, you were forced to lay 12.5 points. Obviously this margin didn’t make a difference as New York won, but it just goes to show how things can change for this biggest of all football contests. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side.
The other challenge that faces bettors for the big game is that the means for successfully handicapping it change significantly from anything seen in the regular season or the playoffs up till this point. In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. With that said, it does pay off to do your homework. Nobody likes watching the game on the big screen with a know-it-all friend or family member who really didn’t prepare and is now irritable because the game isn’t unfolding as planned.
Hopefully, with all of the coverage we’re offering for Sunday’s Pittsburgh-Arizona showdown, you will at least go into the betting process a prepared and educated fan. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 42 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to get a better feel for what this year’s contest might offer. I call it “Looking back to look ahead.”
I’ve divided the analysis into a few different sections. The first one is looking at the stats generated in past Super Bowl games and how they have reflected the outcome. If you see any not-so-obvious matchup differences that might be exploited on Sunday by the Steelers or Cardinals, perhaps the angles offered there could be the golden nuggets. The second portion is past trends and systems. How do favorites or underdogs do? Does either conference have an edge as how it relates to this year’s game? Do the team records make a difference? These are just a few of the ideas I explore. Finally, the third part recaps some of the successful overall playoff handicapping angles that will be in place for Sunday. If you need even more, there’s a handy chart of past Super Bowl games with pointspreads and stats that you can take advantage of. Enjoy the information everyone, and be sure to take in all that StatFox, the Platinum Sheet, Sportsform & CPFN have to offer this week so that you’re fully prepared to come up big on February 1st!
Super Bowl Stat Angles
The teams have studies each other for two weeks, so they know nearly everything there is to know about their opponent. The players are all professionals that have reached the sport’s pinnacle. There doesn’t figure to be any overwhelming physical mismatches. Therefore, execution proves to be the most pivotal factor in the Super Bowl, more so than any other game simply because of what is at stake. Dictionary.com defines the word “execute” as to carry out; accomplish. In football lingo, this means controlling the line of scrimmage, passing the ball efficiently, and limiting mistakes. In the Super Bowl, the team that accomplishes these goals nearly always comes out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-7 SU & 31-8-3 ATS (78.9%).
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 37-5 SU & 32-7-3 ATS (81.6%).
* In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just three times SU and six times ATS (84.2%). Coincidentally, the last two times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last two world championships.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-11 SU & 29-10-3 ATS.
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-1 SU & 31-5-1 ATS. In ’08, New York ran for more yards, passed for more yards per attempt, and possessed the ball longer than New England.
* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. For those of you intrigued, the only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots, further indicating that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Like most of the other major sports, the route to become a champion in the NFL has changed dramatically in recent years. I cite the turning point as Pittsburgh’s 2006 Super Bowl run in which it won four road games as the AFC’s #6 seed to emerge as champion. Since then, we’ve seen improbable sports world titles from the Miami Heat, the Colts & Giants, the Cardinals & Phillies in baseball, and Carolina in the NHL. It has seemed in recent years that the regular season has come to mean very little. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs.
With that caveat in place, I present the following historical Super Bowl records for various pointspread, total, and scoring scenarios.
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.
* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.
* The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.
* The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco’s rout win over San Diego in the ’95 game.
* The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
* There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
* Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).
Over/Under Trends
* There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.
* Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.
* The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.
* The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles that have fared well in past playoff games and have continued to hold their ground in ’09, here are three different systems that will be in play on Sunday. If you’re wondering why the list shortened so dramatically, recall that many of the angles revealed in the wildcard, divisional, and championship rounds hinged on home/road dichotomy, and with the Super Bowl played on a neutral field, those trends don’t apply. In any case, Pittsburgh will try to capitalize on its run stuffing advantage, while Arizona will look to neutralize that edge with its prolific passing game.
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 53-39 ATS (57.6%).
Record in ’09: 8-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Pittsburgh
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 21-15 ATS (58.3%)
Record in ’09: 3-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 23-16 ATS (59.0%)
Record in ’09: 4-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona
Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!