February 2012 NFL Events
Calendar of NFL Events for February 2012 brought to you by footballonlinegambling.net
NFL News
NFL Week 4: Play against home favorites
2010-09-30
A handicapping angle that has paid consistent dividends for decades validated itself again last week. As discussed prior to Week 3, Play AGAINST home favorites of 10.5 or more points versus division opponents off an upset loss as a favorite.
For more betting trends, check out the Team Stats page at Sportsbook.com.
There were three games that featured this scenario last week and two of them came through. Cleveland easily covered the 12.5-point spread at Baltimore, falling 24-17 after having led the game outright 17-14 in the fourth quarter. Likewise, Buffalo beat the 14-point spread at New England in a 38-30 loss. The Bills were within one score of the Patriots and had possession of the ball late in the game before an INT ended their upset hopes. In the third such contest, Detroit just missed covering the 13 points it was getting at Minnesota, losing 24-10 in a game that was 14-10 at the half.
After last week’s 2-1 record using this angle, this trend is now 44-15 since 1983. (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*).
There are two such opportunities this week. Detroit gets another shot as a heavy 15-point underdog at Green Bay, who lost as a road favorite on Monday night in Chicago. Meanwhile, Carolina is getting 13.5 points from the defending Super Bowl champions in the Superdome. New Orleans is coming off an agonizing overtime loss to Atlanta.
To cash-in on this powerful betting trend head over to Sportsbook.com now.
An early look at the NFL Week 1 odds & trends
2010-06-29
Having just completed this year’s StatFox Edge Annual, football is fresh on my mind. In addition to that, the NFL lines for Week 1 have been out for a few weeks now and it’s never too early to start looking at getting a jump on the oddsmakers. Let’s take a first look at what’s on tap for the NFL opening week of the 2010 season, from both a background and betting perspective. Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
Thursday, September 9
<b><i>MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (-4, 52)</b></i>
The season kicks off as usual on Thursday night, September 9th, with the defending Super Bowl Champions hosting the contest. This time around, it’s a rematch of the NFC Championship game between the Vikings and Saints. New Orleans won that thriller back in January in overtime, 31-28, en route to a first ever Super Bowl title. These teams were the top two teams in the NFL last year in points scored and thus the lofty total of 52 is well justified, although it is 1-1/2 points below last year’s title game total. The pointspread is identical. Of course so much of what happens in this game comes down to whether or not Brett Favre returns under center for Minnesota. Some notes to consider about this contest…the defending Super Bowl champ has opened at home the follow-up season the last six years. In those games, that host is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh field goal win over Tennessee the only pointspread blemish. The last three games have gone UNDER the total.
Sunday, September 12
<b><i>CAROLINA at NY GIANTS (-7, 40)</b></i>
Carolina visited the Giants two days after Christmas last season and humiliated them, winning 41-9 as an 8-point underdog. The Panthers were directed by Matt Moore at quarterback for that and four other contests down the stretch when they went 4-1. He is expected to be the starter in 2010 but the Carolina defense will be minus Julius Peppers. In this contest, the Panthers open as TD underdogs to a Giants team that is expected to be better, especially on defense, if for no other reason than they can’t much worse. New York yielded 40 points in five different games during their 3-8 skid down the stretch. A trend to note here, home favorites of -6 to -9.5 own an impressive 26-6 SU & 19-13 ATS (59%) in the opening week of the NFL season this decade. However, the StatFox Power Ratings indicate Carolina should be a 3-point favorite. This will be the first ever regular season game at the Giants New Meadowlands home.
<b><i>MIAMI (-3/-115, 38) at BUFFALO</b></i>
Miami made a big offseason acquisition to obtain wide receiver Brandon Marshall from the Broncos to improve a pass offense that gained just 5.23 yards per attempt last season, 23rd in the NFL. The Dolphins will be visiting a Buffalo team that from all intents and purposes seems to be in rebuilding mode. Miami is a 3-point road favorite and has gone 10-2 ATS on the road vs. conference foes over the last two seasons. The Bills ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yardage last season but hope that Chan Gailey, their new Head Coach, can engineer a turnaround. The trend to consider in this game is that all divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
<b><i>ATLANTA (-1, 40) at PITTSBURGH</b></i>
The first game in the suspension being served by Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger brings the Falcons to Pittsburgh, and it’s quite evident that oddsmakers have put huge stock in his absence, as Atlanta is the 1-point road favorite. Both teams were 9-7 a year ago, and Pittsburgh boasts the way stronger defense, thus the pointspread still seems like a potential overreaction. Still, the following trend would suggest the Falcons are the correct side to back: Road Favorites in NFL Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 13-8 ATS (62%) run. One other thing to consider, Atlanta was one of the best poinstpread-covering teams in the NFL in 2010, going 11-5 ATS, while Pittsburgh was one of the worst, 5-10-1 ATS. Expect either Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich to step in for Roethlisberger to start the season.
<b><i>DETROIT at CHICAGO (-6½, 42½)</b></i>
Considering that Detroit has only won two games over the last two seasons, and Chicago comes off a 7-9 campaign, the first in the Jay Cutler era, it’s unusual to see more optimism surrounding the Lions’ franchise. However, an offseason of encouraging young acquisitions along with the expected continued growth of Matt Stafford at quarterback has Lions fans thinking bigger in 2010. Chicago meanwhile, didn’t have a first or second round pick in April’s draft, and has put many of its eggs in two baskets, that of Cutler, and this past offseason prized acquisition, DE Julius Peppers. Realistically still, Detroit was 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 in division play a year ago and probably further away than people are giving credit for, at least out of the gate. Chicago won its final two games of 2009, both SU & ATS but will be fighting a trend that finds road underdogs of 3-1/2 points or more in divisional games of NFL’s opening week at 7-21 SU but 19-9 ATS (68%) since 2000.
<b><i>CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND (-6, 44)</b></i>
The two losers of the wildcard round playoffs games in the AFC last January meet to open the 2010 season. There is a general line of thinking that the Patriots’ home playoff loss to the Ravens is signaling the end of the decade-long dominant regime, but there are enough other believers that as long as Tom Brady is under center and Bill Belichick is at the controls, that New England will be just fine. Oddsmakers seem to be cautiously leaning towards the latter, installing the Pats as 6-point favorites to a defending playoff team. Keep in mind that the Baltimore game was New England’s only home loss of the 2009 season. Cincinnati was also ousted at home in the postseason, by the Jets, but was stellar as an underdog, 7-2 ATS. Here is a trend concerning a possible play on the total of 44…When two Winning Teams from the prior year have played in Week 1, UNDER the total has gone 17-9 (65%) since ’03.
<b><i>CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY (-2, 36)</b></i>
Two of the league’s struggling franchises go head-to-head in Week 1, and the good news for one of them is that they’ll start 2010 off with a victory. If you consider the close to the 2009 season as an indicator, that team will likely be Cleveland, who won its last four games outright, and its last seven ATS. The Browns will be starting anew with Jake Delhomme at quarterback and Mike Holmgren as the new boss of football happenings. Tampa Bay played reasonably well down the stretch but not at the level of the Browns. They will be favored for the first time since the ’08 season, laying 2-points in this game. On that note, home favorites of less than a field goal have been a solid bet in Week 1, going 10-4 SU & ATS (71%) since 2001.
<b><i>DENVER at JACKSONVILLE (-1½, 41)</b></i>
Denver and Jacksonville combined to go just 2-8 in December last season, with each fading out of the AFC wildcard picture. One of them will at least get off to a good start for this fall. Head coach Josh McDaniels’ team is without its primary weapon of the last few years, WR Brandon Marshall. The Jaguars don’t have a plethora of offensive weapons to speak of overall. In that sense, perhaps the total is the way to go here. If you are looking at taking a side, consider Jack Del Rio’s team’s recent plight as the chalk…JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 18.8, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 5*)
<b><i>INDIANAPOLIS (-3/-115, 47) at HOUSTON</b></i>
Houston has its sights set on a first playoff berth in franchise history. The Texans seem to be right on the cusp of reaching that goal. However, unless something drastic changes this year, it would have to be as a wildcard, as the Colts remain the primary obstacle in winning the AFC South Division. Perhaps a win in the home opener can give HC gary Kubiak’s team the confidence and momentum it needs to become a contender. The Texans can score, and they come off a season in which they led the NFL in passing yardage. The Colts though do nearly everything well and as long as Peyton Manning is at quarterback, will always have a chance of winning the division. Indianapolis has won six straight games over the Texans and was 7-1 ATS on the road in the 2009 regular season. Keep an eye on this trend…All favorites of exactly 3-points boast a 29-10 SU & 21-12-5 ATS (64%) mark in Week 1 since 2000.
<b><i>OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (-7, 41)</b></i>
Optimism reigns in both Oakland and Tennessee heading into the 2010 season. The Raiders, for once, had an offseason that is being widely regarded by the so-called experts. The biggest move they made was to trade for former Washington QB Jason Campbell, who always boasted decent numbers but could never get over the hump of being an elite quarterback. He has a decent running game behind him with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Speaking of good running games, the Titans have the best one in the NFL, with 2000+ yard rusher Chris Johnson. Assuming nothing negative comes out of his contract squabble, he’ll be back minus crutch Lendale White for 2010. Tennessee turned a 0-6 start into an 8-8 finish last season. Because they didn’t make the postseason, there is still work to be done. Oakland has covered five of the last six games between these teams and is actually 12-6 ATS on the road versus conference foes since 2006.
<b><i>GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA (PK, 46)</b></i>
Two of the perennial powers of the NFC over the last decade will get together in what should be a huge barometer for where each stands heading into 2010. On paper, Green Bay looks as good as anyone, with MVP-candidate Aaron Rodgers emerging into one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Games aren’t played on paper though, and the Packers will be looking to snap a 6-game losing skid in the City of Brotherly Love (1-5 ATS). Fortunately, the Pack has been very good on the road under Mike McCarthy, going 22-10 ATS. Philadelphia enters its first season in a long time without Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, or Brian Dawkins as the team leaders. McNabb has been replaced by Kevin Kolb, who Eagles management hopes will develop similarly to the way Rodgers did when he replaced Brett Favre. He has perhaps the most dynamic set of skill position players in the league at his disposal. Oddsmakers don’t know quite what to make of Philly at this point, setting this line up as a pick em’.
<b><i>SAN FRANCISCO (-2, 38) at SEATTLE</b></i>
Most NFL experts believe that there will be a changing of the guard in the NFC West after two years of Arizona rule. The two most likely beneficiaries are the 49ers and Seahawks. San Francisco is the odds-on-favorite to win the division in 2010, coming off a season in which it went 8-8 but lost six games by a touchdown or less. HC Mike Singletary’s club was 9-4 ATS and among the league leaders defensively in several key categories. Their success will hinge upon the performance of #1 pick Alex Smith at quarterback, who may finally be ready to take over the club as the bonafide leader. Seattle is set at quarterback with Matt Hasselbeck, but he is aging and may not have all that much left in the tank. Off a 5-11 season, new head coach Pete Carroll has transformed the roster to his liking. How it does out of the gate is a big concern though. With San Francisco playing as a 2-point road favorite, recall the trend from earlier, divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
<b><i>ARIZONA (-3½, 41) at ST. LOUIS</b></i>
The NFC West Division is in head-to-head mode on Week 1, and the Rams have a chance to make a huge statement against an Arizona team that could be in a transitional year. The Cardinals are starting anew at quarterback after the retirement of Kurt Warner, and will be without a number of defensive contributors from their back-to-back division title teams as well. Perhaps a new start was in order anyway after HC ken Whisenhunt’s team allowed 90 points in two playoff games last January. The Rams hopefully hit rock bottom last year and will be on their way back up. With six wins in the last three years combined I don’t think things can get much worse. Getting better in division play is a must for them (8-22 ATS L5 seasons). St. Louis could be led by this April’s first overall draft pick, QB Sam Bradford. His early development will have a lot to do with how much ground this team can make up in 2010. Oddsmakers seem a bit leery of Arizona at this point, installing the Cardinals as just 3-1/2 point favorites. St. Louis will be look to get off to a better start than recent years, 1-10 ATS in the L3 September’s.
<b><i>DALLAS (-3/-125, 43) at WASHINGTON</b></i>
Donovan McNabb’s first season with Washington gets off to a potentially very interesting start when he and the Redskins host Dallas on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Of course, McNabb isn’t the only new face in town, as HC Mike Shanahan arrives after taking the year off from football following a great run with Denver. The Redskins were just 4-12 last season and failed to even win a single divisional game. They will be fired up to be taking on what it believed to be a Super Bowl favorite in Dallas. The Cowboys were finally able to get over the playoff drought that had stricken the franchise for 15 years, as they beat Philly in a wildcard game last January. The so-called monkey may be off Tony Romo’s back. Not only do these teams not like one another, but the fact that McNabb moved from a team that was an equal rival to Dallas makes this contest very intriguing. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS run in this head-to-head series.
Monday, September 13
<b><i>BALTIMORE at NY JETS (-3/-105, 37½)</b></i>
The first of two Monday Night Football games on ESPN is an absolute dandy, as two of the expected favorites in the AFC go head-to-head. The Jets and Ravens both made noise in the playoffs last season, and each had made some noteworthy moves to take the next step this winter. On offense, the Ravens added wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Not to be outdone, the Jets traded for WR Santonio Holmes and picked up RB Ladanian Tomlinson. Not only that, but two of the league’s best defensive units will take the field. History shows that 58% of Week 1 games have gone UNDER the total over the last decade. This one certainly has the potential. Judging by the numbers, oddsmakers place these teams on equal levels, with only the 3-points for home field advantage separating them. The Jets are playing their first game in their New Meadowlands home.
<b><i>SAN DIEGO (-6, 45) at KANSAS CITY</b></i>
The nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader, and the game that wraps up the Week 1 slate pits San Diego versus Kansas City in an AFC West Division duel at Arrowhead Stadium. San Diego is going for its fifth straight divisional title this season and is an overwhelming favorite to do so. The Chargers have much bigger goals though, and they concern the postseason, where success has been harder to come by. Of course, it might help for Norv Turner’s team to get off to a better start than it has recently, as they were 2-3 after five games in each of the past three seasons. Kansas City hasn’t beaten San Diego since October ’07, a span of five games, and would like nothing more than to make a huge statement in front of a national audience. The Chiefs are expected to be improved after a 3-year run of winning just 10 games combined. Charlie Weis has joined HC Todd Haley’s staff to run the offense while Romeo Crennel takes the reigns of the defense. While it may be tough to stomach taking K.C. here as the 6-point dog, note that when the difference in the teams’ PPG Margin from the prior year is 10.0 or greater, the team with the worse differential owns an 19-12 ATS (61%) record in Week 1 since 2001.
Good luck in your season preparation. Hopefully the 2010 StatFox Edge Football Annual is part of that process!
NFL: Early Sunday Kickoffs (1:05 PM ET, CBS & FOX)
2009-12-11
The early afternoon betting card in the NFL offers a huge 10-game board, loaded with numerous wagering opportunities. Among the highlight games, both remaining undefeated teams will be in action, while intra-conference division leaders will square off in Minnesota, and AFC wildcard contenders will go head-to-head in Jacksonville. Read on for a look at these games plus a Best Bet selection from the StatFox Platinum Sheet. Get more on all of the Sunday games by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages at Sportsbook.com.
(105) DENVER at (106) INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis remains unbeaten and is already in the uncomfortable position of wondering whether or not to rest starters in its remaining games. The rest of the AFC is hoping that the Colts don’t, as Denver is in the thick of a wildcard logjam at 8-4. For HC Jim Caldwell’s team, the Broncos represent the foe on their remaining schedule with the best record, thus potentially the greatest chance for getting knocked off. For the Broncos, this is the first of two tough remaining road games, but they are 4-2 SU & ATS away in ’09. These teams have become somewhat regular combatants in recent years, and Indy owns a 6-2 SU & ATS record in the series since ’02. In the L3 games in Indianapolis, the Colts are 3-0 SU & ATS with an average victory margin of 24.7 PPG.
(107) CINCINNATI at (108) MINNESOTA
Intra-conference division leaders collide in Minnesota, with each hoping to get closer to locking down their titles. The Vikings are 10-2 after losing at Arizona. The other loss was of course, at the hands of Cincinnati’s rival, the Steelers. The Bengals are 9-3, embarking on a road trip that features stops at the Metrodome and at San Diego. They will be the underdog in both, which may be a welcomed sign for Marvin Lewis, whose team is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS in the dog role this season. They are also 3-0 vs. the NFC and have gone 6-1 ATS in their L7 overall vs. the opposite conference. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS at home under Brad Childress in the L4 weeks of the regular season. The host has swept the L3 h2h meetings between these teams, winning by 17.7 PPG.
(115) NEW ORLEANS at (116) ATLANTA
Some experts have circled this game on the Saints calendar as the largest remaining obstacle in the quest to finish 16-0 in 2009. New Orleans has been at its best in the road favorite role of late, going 10-3 ATS under Sean Payton, including the failed cover at Washington this past week. The Saints are also 7-3 ATS on the divisional road in his tenure. Having already wrapped up the NFC South title, they’ll be looking to spoil the season of one of their rivals here. Atlanta is 6-6 after dropping one to Philadelphia last week and facing an uncertain immediate future with the injury status of QB Matt Ryan. The Falcons are now 3-1 ATS as a home dog under Mike Smith. Favorites are on a run of 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the L12 meetings between these teams in Atlanta.
(119) MIAMI at (120) JACKSONVILLE
Both from Florida, Miami and Jacksonville aren’t exactly rivals, as they meet more in the preseason than they do when it matters. In fact, this will be just the fifth all-time meeting, as each team looks to hang on in the AFC wildcard hunt. The Dolphins are still breathing after upsetting New England, but at 6-6 would need to win out vs. four other fellow contenders to even have a shot. The Jaguars are 7-5, and although their chances are better, their stats (-4.0 PPG margin) and upcoming schedule (Indy, at NE) suggest a postseason berth isn’t in their future either. Jacksonville moved to 2-4 ATS in ’09 at home after the loss to Houston and is 3-11 ATS in its L14 as host. In the h2h series, the Jaguars own a 3-1 SU & ATS edge, most recently in ’06 in Miami.
StatFox Steve sees some value on the Miami-Jacksonville tilt: This to me is an interesting FoxSheets’ system when you really sit down and analyze what it means: Play Against - Any team (JACKSONVILLE) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. (60-27 since 1983.) (69%, +30.3 units. Rating = 2*). The average line of the games in the system team -0.2. How I read it is that our fade team (Jacksonville in this case) has a winning record but played as a home dog last week and is only favored by a small amount this week. In other words, it seems to be a team not worthy of its winning record. I concur, since Jacksonville, despite its 7-5 record, is being outscored by 4.0 PPG. They have been horrible in the favorite role as well. At the same time, Miami has been a gritty team, particularly on the road under Tony Sparano: MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. I can’t tell you which team is the better team here, and with the way Jacksonville has played at home of late, I wouldn’t assign them much home field advantage. Therefore, the value lies with the Dolphins. Play: Miami +2.5
NFL: Late Afternoon Games (4:05 PM ET, CBS & FOX)
There are only three NFL games scheduled for late afternoon on Sunday, and only one of them means anything in the grand scope of the playoff picture, that being San Diego visiting Dallas. Still, for all three, Sportsbook.com has of course offered up a pointspread and total among other wagering possibilities, so they are all worthy of your attention. Here is a quick look at all three, with some key betting tidbits to consider.
(125) ST LOUIS at (126) TENNESSEE
Tennessee will look to start a new winning streak after its loss at Indianapolis snapped its string of five straight. The setback might have been the nail in the coffin of the Titans’ postseason hopes as well, as at 5-7, their chances are remote. Here, they’ll start a 3-game homestand against a St. Louis team that still has just one win in ’09 after falling in Chicago. The Rams have at least been competitive on the road, boasting a 4-2 ATS mark. St Louis is also on a 6-0 ATS run in road games vs. poor defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the L3 seasons. The Titans yield 6.0 YPP. They are 32-14 ATS vs. NFC under Jeff Fisher though. St. Louis has won the L2 meetings between these teams, including the Super Bowl in’00, but didn’t win ATS in either.
(127) WASHINGTON at (128) OAKLAND
Washington and Oakland play one of the uglier matchups of Week 14, and fittingly, the game has plenty of trends to match. Oakland is 0-6 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, with an average loss of 26.8-9.5. Washington is 15-29 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. The Raiders counter that by going 20-40 ATS in December games since 1992. Not to be outdone, Washington brings a 1-8 ATS record vs. AFC foes over the L3 seasons into this scintillating contest. The Redskins are hoping to extend a stretch of 3-0 SU & ATS by the visitor in the head-to-head series between these teams. In fairness to both franchises, the teams have been more competitive of late, Oakland 3-2 ATS in its L5, Washington has covered its L4.
(129) SAN DIEGO at (130) DALLAS
Dallas continues its most difficult stretch of the season when it hosts the red hot Chargers. San Diego has won seven straight games to reach 9-3 and has its sights set on a first round bye. Under Norv Turner, this has been the time of the year where the Chargers have played their best football, boasting an 8-2 ATS December mark. They are also 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams gaining >=5.65 yards per play in his tenure. Dallas averages a lofty 6.7 YPP but finds itself in a tight NFC East race after losing to New York. Since dropping the new stadium opener, the Cowboys have won five straight at home, holding three teams to a TD or less while going 4-1 ATS. They are on a 3-7 ATS slide vs. the AFC, including 2-3 ATS at home.
This Best Bet writeup can be found in the NFL TIPSHEET this week: It happened again on Sunday, Dallas melted down under the mounting playoff pressures of December. San Diego meanwhile, got it done for Norv Turner once again and has proven to be one of the best late season teams in the league. At this point, San Diego is actually one of the top teams overall in the NFL, and to get points with a club playing so well is a gift. What reason is there to think that the Cowboys are better than a team that has won seven straight games? After all, they couldn’t even beat a team that was ready to be left for dead in the Giants. Take a look at this trend on how San Diego snuffs out good offenses late in the year: SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 28.6, OPPONENT 18.8 - (Rating = 1*). Dallas will be fortunate to get those 19 points, in which case, I can’t see any way they beat the number. Play: San Diego +3
NFL: Top Trends for NFL Week 1
2009-09-09
We’re ready to kick off another exciting season in the National Football League, and here are a few of the top trends and latest analysis for the Week 1 games. All odds are courtesy of Sportsbook.com. Visit the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS and TEAM STATISTICS pages all weekend long for the rest of the key handicapping info.
Tennessee (+5) at Pittsburgh – Thursday 8:30 pm ET
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams
Pittsburgh is 24-8 as a home favorite between 3.5-10 points
Tennessee is 8-0 ATS in their last eight September games
This is a tough task for Tennessee as defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five Thursday opening nights. Everyone is waiting for quarterback Kerry Collins to morph back into the younger, more skittish version of himself, but he should be fine as long as he remains a ‘game manager.’
Pittsburgh doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses and their ‘strength of schedule’ is one of the easiest in the NFL. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is the Teflon Man once again. He seems completely unaffected by his recent injury scare and his sexual assault case.
Philadelphia (-1) at Carolina – Sunday 1 pm EST
Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS as a road favorite between .5-3 points
Carolina was 5-2-1 ATS at home in the regular season last year
Under is 12-4 in Carolina’s last 16 home games
Philly has moved from one-point underdogs to one-point ‘chalk’ even though they were 0-4 ATS in the preseason. Donovan McNabb will lead the offense for the first two games without the help of Mike Vick and the ‘Wildcat.’ The defense must prove it can win without coordinator Jim Johnson.
Carolina was 8-0 SU at home in the regular season last year, but all anyone remembers is the home playoff loss to Arizona. The Panthers were 0-4 both straight-up and ATS in the preseason and now have running back Jonathan Stewart and linebacker Jon Beason questionable for this game.
Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants – Sunday 4:15 pm EST
New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams
New York was 12-4 ATS in the regular season last year
Washington is 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games
Washington is predicted to be bottom-dwellers in the NFC East, but don’t fall asleep on this team. Quarterback Jason Campbell is looking much more comfortable in Coach Jim Zorn’s offense and the defense was already Top 5 before adding Albert Haynesworth. Zorn better hope it all comes together or he’ll be back in Seattle working at Starbucks.
New York has all the pieces in place for another Super Bowl run except number one receiver. There is plenty of talent at the position, but someone has to assume the role of jailed Plaxico Burress. If the Giants struggle early on, the pressure will mount on Eli Manning, especially with his new mammoth contract.
Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay – Sunday 8:20 pm EST
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
Chicago is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games
Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler has been all that was advertised so far, but his current group of receivers can’t compare with those on Denver last year. Cutler actually had a better quarterback rating on the road last year (89.3) than at home (83.2), and he’ll need to play great in this tough Lambeau matchup.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense looked great when they played in the preseason. Can you say Brett Favre who? While that has Packers fans suddenly confident heading into Sunday night, the real key is how fast the defense responds to Dom Capers’ multiple-look 3-4 scheme.
Buffalo (+10.5) at New England – Monday 7 pm EST
New England is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams
New England is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 1 games
Buffalo is having its share of drama already, but its surprisingly not coming from wide receiver Terrell Owens. Offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert has been fired this preseason after an anemic showing for the first team offense. However, Coach Dick Jauron says the Bills will stick with the no-huddle offense.
New England continues its purge of veteran defensive players. The latest to go is Richard Seymour who was traded to Oakland for a 2011 number one pick. Coach Bill Belichick feels he can win with his revamped defense, but the QB position is thinner than an old Kate Moss photo with the un-drafted Brian Hoyer the only backup.
Other Week 1 Odds
Sunday
Miami (+4) at Atlanta – 1 pm EST
Denver (+4) at Cincinnati – 1 pm EST
Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland – 1 pm EST
Jacksonville (+7) at Indianapolis – 1 pm EST
Detroit (+13) at New Orleans – 1 pm EST
Dallas (-5.5) at Tampa Bay – 1 pm EST
Kansas City (+10.5) at Baltimore – 1 pm EST
NY Jets (+4.5) at Houston – 1 pm EST
San Francisco (+6.5) at Arizona – 4:15 pm EST
St. Louis (+7.5) at Seattle – 4:15 pm EST
San Diego (-9) at Oakland – Monday 10:15 pm ET
NFL: Early NFL Kickoffs (1:00 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-12-19
The NFL is down to just two weeks remaining in the regular season, and Sunday’s board offers a big slate of key games. In fact, the early afternoon kickoffs are loaded with several contests affecting the playoff picture. Pittsburgh and Tennessee battle for the top spot in the AFC, New England hopes to stay atop the AFC East Division standings when it hosts playoff-bound Arizona, and Tampa Bay looks to improve its postseason prospects while eliminating San Diego from such consideration. Here’s a look at those games, including a Best Bet selection on one of them. Be sure to visit the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for the latest key information.
(105) PITTSBURGH at (106) TENNESSEE
Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North Division and a first round playoff bye with its win at Baltimore, but the work has just begun for the Steelers. On Sunday, they’ll look to take over the top spot in the AFC with a win at Tennessee. After the Titans’ loss at Houston, only one game separates these two teams. HC Jeff Fisher’s team, a 1-point home favorite, boasts a 15-3 ATS second-half record vs. good passing defenses (<= 175 PYPG allowed). The Steelers are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS on the road though and battle tested by one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. They are also on a 28-10 ATS run vs. elite teams winning 75% or more of their games. Predictably, the underdog holds the edge in the L9 games of this intense h2h series, 6-3 ATS. The OVER is 7-2 in that span.
(109) ARIZONA at (110) NEW ENGLAND
Apparently hungover from its division title clinching win in week 13, Ariozna didn’t wake up fully against Minnesota until down 28-0 in the second quarter last Sunday. Oddsmakers may envision a similar effort in New England, as the hosts are a lofty 9-point favorite. The game means a lot to the Patriots, who are in a 3-way tie atop the AFC East with two games to go. The unusually high line could have something to do with the Cards’ prior three trips this season to the northeast, as they allowed 128 points while going 0-3 SU & ATS. It will be the first time Arizona has visited New England since ’96. The Patriots have won the last four hh2 meetings, both SU & ATS. The matchup’s top trend finds HC Bill Belichick as 15-4 ATS vs. teams averaging >=260 PYPG.
(129) SAN DIEGO at (130) TAMPA BAY
San Diego needs help from the Bills up in Denver to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Chargers also have the tall task of trying to be the first team to beat the Buccaneers in Tampa. The Bucs are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, having outscored opponents by 11.1 PPG. HC John Gruden’s team also has playoff aspirations of its own and fell to third in the NFC wildcard race after the OT loss in Atlanta. They will be looking for help from the Vikings or Ravens. This will be the start of two straight season ending games at home vs. the AFC for Tampa, who is 6-2-1 ATS in its L9 in that scenario. The Chargers have allowed 268 PYPG and 7.3 PYA on the road in ‘08, but Gruden’s teams are 1-10 ATS in their L11 second half games vs. poor passing defenses allowing >=235 PYPG.
Platinum Sheet Best Bet Selection: Like the story Ol’ Yeller, San Diego is a worn out dog ready to be put out of its misery. After living to see another day this past week at Kansas City, Sunday’s trip to Tampa should be more than enough to put the final nail in San Diego coffin for ’08. The Bucs have been literally unbeatable at home this season, going 6-0 SU while outscoring teams by over 11 PPG. The only reason they bring a two-game losing streak into this contest is because they ran into not one, but two buzzsaws over the last couple of weeks, first at Carolina, then at Atlanta. The season schedule is much more favorable in the final two weeks for HC John Gruden’s club, and I fully expect to see them in the postseason assuming QB Jeff Garcia plays. Outplay Factor Ratings say this line should be Tampa Bay -5.7. Anything less than that is worth playing. Play: Tampa Bay minus the points
NFL: Sunday Late Afternoon NFL Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-10-10
Of the four late afternoon games in the NFL, ALL are important in some way or another to the playoff chases in each conference. Of course, when you’re betting, the only games that mean more are the ones you have wagering tickets on. With that thought in mind, here’s is a look at each of the four games to choose from with kickoffs in the 4 o’clock hour.
(219) JACKSONVILLE at (220) DENVER (-3, 48.5)
Jacksonville will be looking to win in Denver for the second straight season, while the Broncos will be looking to finish off a home game for its backers for the first time in ’08. Despite being 3-0 thus far at Invesco Field, Denver has yet to beat a Vegas pointspread, failing to cover minor numbers of -1.5, -4.5, and -3.5. For those who have seen Mike Shanahan’s team go just 5-15 ATS in their L20 home games, the results shouldn’t come as a surprise. Still, they find themselves 4-1 after five weeks and in control of the AFC West Division. Jacksonville heads into its open date after this game and is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 in that scenario, including the 23-14 ’07 win in Denver. Overall in this head-to-head series, the underdog is on a 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS run.
* StatFox Forecaster says Jacksonville 28, Denver 26
(221) PHILADELPHIA (-5, 42.5) at (222) SAN FRANCISCO
Two teams whose playoff aspirations have begun slipping away in the last couple of weeks will try to revive those hopes this Sunday when they go head-to-head. Both Philadelphia and San Francisco have lost back-to-back games after 2-1 starts. The Eagles will be looking to extend a 23-10 SU & 18-14 ATS record as a road favorite. Incidentally, the favorite is also 6-2 ATS in the L8 games between these teams. The last four have gone OVER the total. The 49ers will be looking for a first win against a NFC East team under Mike Nolan. They are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS versus that division in 3+ seasons. Not all angles are in Philadelphia’s favor however, as HC Andy Reid’s team is just 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in games prior to their bye week, which comes after this contest.
* StatFox Prediction: 49ers cover
(223) DALLAS (-4.5, 50.5) at (224) ARIZONA
As former divisional rivals, the Dallas-Arizona rivalry became a heated one, as Cowboys’ fans regularly made the trip to Phoenix to secure an unofficial 9th home game each season. Now, with Cardinals’ fans’ support growing with a 3-2 start, they’ll welcome 4-1 Dallas back to town. HC Ken Whisenhunt’s team is establishing a definite home field advantage for the first time in years, having gone 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in his year-plus with the club. The latest win was a 41-17 thrashing of previously unbeaten Buffalo, meaning they’ve poured in 34.7 PPG in their last seven as hosts. Dallas is 0-3 ATS at home, but 2-0 ATS on the road. As road chalk of 3.5-7 points, the Cowboys are 13-4 ATS in their L17 chances. They are also on a 10-3 ATS run vs. Arizona overall.
* StatFox Power Rating Line says Dallas by 2
(225) GREEN BAY at (226) SEATTLE (-2, 46.5)
Three straight losses have QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers reeling, and they’ll need to turn it around in Seattle, a place they haven’t won at since ’96. To be fair, Green Bay has only played in Seattle once since that time, losing to former coach Mike Holmgren 34-24 in ’06. Still, it’s unfamiliar territory for Rodgers, who has struggled since the 2-0 start in replacing Brett Favre. Holmgren’s team dropped to 7-27 ATS in October under his watch with the ugly 44-6 defeat at New York last week. They are allowing 31 PPG defensively and five of their L7 opponents have topped the 30-point mark. Including Green Bay’s 42-20 playoff win of last January, the OVER is 4-1 in the L5 meetings of these teams. Green Bay is 13-5 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.
* StatFox Outplay Factor Rating says Green Bay by 6
NFL - San Francisco at Seattle
2007-11-09
The Monday night game offers up a divisional showdown between rivals of the NFC West. No team is over .500 in this brutal division, so Seattle maintains control of the lead with a 4-4 record.
The Seahawks are off a disappointing 33-30 OT loss at Cleveland in which they gave up a 21-6 lead. It was the second time in ’07 that the offense scored both 30 points and gained at least 400 yards, so there are signs that the sputtering unit is coming to life. Speaking of struggling offenses, the 49ers are the league’s worst in yards per game (224.2) and yards per play (4.2). They have lost six straight games and are 1-5 ATS in that span. HC Mike Nolan’s teams are 6-12 ATS as road underdogs, but 5-4 ATS as double-digit dogs, which they are here at +10. In last year’s game between these teams at Seattle, the 49ers won outright, 24-14 as 10-point dogs.
The Niners started with a bang but have since found NFL life unrewarding, going 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS heading into this week’s matchup with division foe Seattle. The offense has sputtered with various injuries hampering the effort and a lack of power provided by the rushing attack. The offensive line has failed to support the momentum built last season and now must find a way to reverse fortunes if San Fran is going to challenge for wins. The defense is strong is more than capable despite giving up too many rushing yards, but their strength will never be realized until the offensive support comes forth.
Seattle may be one of the more frustrating units in the professional ranks this season. The offense is loaded with potential but has failed to formulate a means of consistent success. The defense is on the verge of joining the great units in the game but will falter against a strong rushing attack. There is nothing about this squad that shines, evidenced by the 4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, and 3-4-1 O/U records thus far. However, this team has put San Fran in their place once this season and faces a great opportunity to build much-needed momentum once again.
Keys to the Game –This NFC West matchup looked like a sure–fire winner before the season started; however, San Francisco has fallen flat on their faces. Injuries have limited offense, still to be this dreadful at this point of the season points to players not holding up there end of the bargain. The Niners are once again dogs to Seattle, just like they have been the previous six times. Many of the elements are in place for Seattle, but like child’s toy – assembly required. As loud and proud Seattle fans are and with how good the Seahawks have been under Mike Holmgren, they are 7-1 ATS at Qwest Field when a touchdown or more home favorite.
Trends
- The SU winner of Seattle MNF games is 20-0-1 ATS.
- San Fran is 5-2 ATS as a MNF road underdog.
StatFox Pick – Seahawks minus points
2010-09-30
A handicapping angle that has paid consistent dividends for decades validated itself again last week. As discussed prior to Week 3, Play AGAINST home favorites of 10.5 or more points versus division opponents off an upset loss as a favorite.
For more betting trends, check out the Team Stats page at Sportsbook.com.
There were three games that featured this scenario last week and two of them came through. Cleveland easily covered the 12.5-point spread at Baltimore, falling 24-17 after having led the game outright 17-14 in the fourth quarter. Likewise, Buffalo beat the 14-point spread at New England in a 38-30 loss. The Bills were within one score of the Patriots and had possession of the ball late in the game before an INT ended their upset hopes. In the third such contest, Detroit just missed covering the 13 points it was getting at Minnesota, losing 24-10 in a game that was 14-10 at the half.
After last week’s 2-1 record using this angle, this trend is now 44-15 since 1983. (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*).
There are two such opportunities this week. Detroit gets another shot as a heavy 15-point underdog at Green Bay, who lost as a road favorite on Monday night in Chicago. Meanwhile, Carolina is getting 13.5 points from the defending Super Bowl champions in the Superdome. New Orleans is coming off an agonizing overtime loss to Atlanta.
To cash-in on this powerful betting trend head over to Sportsbook.com now.
An early look at the NFL Week 1 odds & trends
2010-06-29
Having just completed this year’s StatFox Edge Annual, football is fresh on my mind. In addition to that, the NFL lines for Week 1 have been out for a few weeks now and it’s never too early to start looking at getting a jump on the oddsmakers. Let’s take a first look at what’s on tap for the NFL opening week of the 2010 season, from both a background and betting perspective. Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
Thursday, September 9
<b><i>MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (-4, 52)</b></i>
The season kicks off as usual on Thursday night, September 9th, with the defending Super Bowl Champions hosting the contest. This time around, it’s a rematch of the NFC Championship game between the Vikings and Saints. New Orleans won that thriller back in January in overtime, 31-28, en route to a first ever Super Bowl title. These teams were the top two teams in the NFL last year in points scored and thus the lofty total of 52 is well justified, although it is 1-1/2 points below last year’s title game total. The pointspread is identical. Of course so much of what happens in this game comes down to whether or not Brett Favre returns under center for Minnesota. Some notes to consider about this contest…the defending Super Bowl champ has opened at home the follow-up season the last six years. In those games, that host is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh field goal win over Tennessee the only pointspread blemish. The last three games have gone UNDER the total.
Sunday, September 12
<b><i>CAROLINA at NY GIANTS (-7, 40)</b></i>
Carolina visited the Giants two days after Christmas last season and humiliated them, winning 41-9 as an 8-point underdog. The Panthers were directed by Matt Moore at quarterback for that and four other contests down the stretch when they went 4-1. He is expected to be the starter in 2010 but the Carolina defense will be minus Julius Peppers. In this contest, the Panthers open as TD underdogs to a Giants team that is expected to be better, especially on defense, if for no other reason than they can’t much worse. New York yielded 40 points in five different games during their 3-8 skid down the stretch. A trend to note here, home favorites of -6 to -9.5 own an impressive 26-6 SU & 19-13 ATS (59%) in the opening week of the NFL season this decade. However, the StatFox Power Ratings indicate Carolina should be a 3-point favorite. This will be the first ever regular season game at the Giants New Meadowlands home.
<b><i>MIAMI (-3/-115, 38) at BUFFALO</b></i>
Miami made a big offseason acquisition to obtain wide receiver Brandon Marshall from the Broncos to improve a pass offense that gained just 5.23 yards per attempt last season, 23rd in the NFL. The Dolphins will be visiting a Buffalo team that from all intents and purposes seems to be in rebuilding mode. Miami is a 3-point road favorite and has gone 10-2 ATS on the road vs. conference foes over the last two seasons. The Bills ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yardage last season but hope that Chan Gailey, their new Head Coach, can engineer a turnaround. The trend to consider in this game is that all divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
<b><i>ATLANTA (-1, 40) at PITTSBURGH</b></i>
The first game in the suspension being served by Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger brings the Falcons to Pittsburgh, and it’s quite evident that oddsmakers have put huge stock in his absence, as Atlanta is the 1-point road favorite. Both teams were 9-7 a year ago, and Pittsburgh boasts the way stronger defense, thus the pointspread still seems like a potential overreaction. Still, the following trend would suggest the Falcons are the correct side to back: Road Favorites in NFL Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 13-8 ATS (62%) run. One other thing to consider, Atlanta was one of the best poinstpread-covering teams in the NFL in 2010, going 11-5 ATS, while Pittsburgh was one of the worst, 5-10-1 ATS. Expect either Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich to step in for Roethlisberger to start the season.
<b><i>DETROIT at CHICAGO (-6½, 42½)</b></i>
Considering that Detroit has only won two games over the last two seasons, and Chicago comes off a 7-9 campaign, the first in the Jay Cutler era, it’s unusual to see more optimism surrounding the Lions’ franchise. However, an offseason of encouraging young acquisitions along with the expected continued growth of Matt Stafford at quarterback has Lions fans thinking bigger in 2010. Chicago meanwhile, didn’t have a first or second round pick in April’s draft, and has put many of its eggs in two baskets, that of Cutler, and this past offseason prized acquisition, DE Julius Peppers. Realistically still, Detroit was 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 in division play a year ago and probably further away than people are giving credit for, at least out of the gate. Chicago won its final two games of 2009, both SU & ATS but will be fighting a trend that finds road underdogs of 3-1/2 points or more in divisional games of NFL’s opening week at 7-21 SU but 19-9 ATS (68%) since 2000.
<b><i>CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND (-6, 44)</b></i>
The two losers of the wildcard round playoffs games in the AFC last January meet to open the 2010 season. There is a general line of thinking that the Patriots’ home playoff loss to the Ravens is signaling the end of the decade-long dominant regime, but there are enough other believers that as long as Tom Brady is under center and Bill Belichick is at the controls, that New England will be just fine. Oddsmakers seem to be cautiously leaning towards the latter, installing the Pats as 6-point favorites to a defending playoff team. Keep in mind that the Baltimore game was New England’s only home loss of the 2009 season. Cincinnati was also ousted at home in the postseason, by the Jets, but was stellar as an underdog, 7-2 ATS. Here is a trend concerning a possible play on the total of 44…When two Winning Teams from the prior year have played in Week 1, UNDER the total has gone 17-9 (65%) since ’03.
<b><i>CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY (-2, 36)</b></i>
Two of the league’s struggling franchises go head-to-head in Week 1, and the good news for one of them is that they’ll start 2010 off with a victory. If you consider the close to the 2009 season as an indicator, that team will likely be Cleveland, who won its last four games outright, and its last seven ATS. The Browns will be starting anew with Jake Delhomme at quarterback and Mike Holmgren as the new boss of football happenings. Tampa Bay played reasonably well down the stretch but not at the level of the Browns. They will be favored for the first time since the ’08 season, laying 2-points in this game. On that note, home favorites of less than a field goal have been a solid bet in Week 1, going 10-4 SU & ATS (71%) since 2001.
<b><i>DENVER at JACKSONVILLE (-1½, 41)</b></i>
Denver and Jacksonville combined to go just 2-8 in December last season, with each fading out of the AFC wildcard picture. One of them will at least get off to a good start for this fall. Head coach Josh McDaniels’ team is without its primary weapon of the last few years, WR Brandon Marshall. The Jaguars don’t have a plethora of offensive weapons to speak of overall. In that sense, perhaps the total is the way to go here. If you are looking at taking a side, consider Jack Del Rio’s team’s recent plight as the chalk…JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 18.8, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 5*)
<b><i>INDIANAPOLIS (-3/-115, 47) at HOUSTON</b></i>
Houston has its sights set on a first playoff berth in franchise history. The Texans seem to be right on the cusp of reaching that goal. However, unless something drastic changes this year, it would have to be as a wildcard, as the Colts remain the primary obstacle in winning the AFC South Division. Perhaps a win in the home opener can give HC gary Kubiak’s team the confidence and momentum it needs to become a contender. The Texans can score, and they come off a season in which they led the NFL in passing yardage. The Colts though do nearly everything well and as long as Peyton Manning is at quarterback, will always have a chance of winning the division. Indianapolis has won six straight games over the Texans and was 7-1 ATS on the road in the 2009 regular season. Keep an eye on this trend…All favorites of exactly 3-points boast a 29-10 SU & 21-12-5 ATS (64%) mark in Week 1 since 2000.
<b><i>OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (-7, 41)</b></i>
Optimism reigns in both Oakland and Tennessee heading into the 2010 season. The Raiders, for once, had an offseason that is being widely regarded by the so-called experts. The biggest move they made was to trade for former Washington QB Jason Campbell, who always boasted decent numbers but could never get over the hump of being an elite quarterback. He has a decent running game behind him with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Speaking of good running games, the Titans have the best one in the NFL, with 2000+ yard rusher Chris Johnson. Assuming nothing negative comes out of his contract squabble, he’ll be back minus crutch Lendale White for 2010. Tennessee turned a 0-6 start into an 8-8 finish last season. Because they didn’t make the postseason, there is still work to be done. Oakland has covered five of the last six games between these teams and is actually 12-6 ATS on the road versus conference foes since 2006.
<b><i>GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA (PK, 46)</b></i>
Two of the perennial powers of the NFC over the last decade will get together in what should be a huge barometer for where each stands heading into 2010. On paper, Green Bay looks as good as anyone, with MVP-candidate Aaron Rodgers emerging into one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Games aren’t played on paper though, and the Packers will be looking to snap a 6-game losing skid in the City of Brotherly Love (1-5 ATS). Fortunately, the Pack has been very good on the road under Mike McCarthy, going 22-10 ATS. Philadelphia enters its first season in a long time without Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, or Brian Dawkins as the team leaders. McNabb has been replaced by Kevin Kolb, who Eagles management hopes will develop similarly to the way Rodgers did when he replaced Brett Favre. He has perhaps the most dynamic set of skill position players in the league at his disposal. Oddsmakers don’t know quite what to make of Philly at this point, setting this line up as a pick em’.
<b><i>SAN FRANCISCO (-2, 38) at SEATTLE</b></i>
Most NFL experts believe that there will be a changing of the guard in the NFC West after two years of Arizona rule. The two most likely beneficiaries are the 49ers and Seahawks. San Francisco is the odds-on-favorite to win the division in 2010, coming off a season in which it went 8-8 but lost six games by a touchdown or less. HC Mike Singletary’s club was 9-4 ATS and among the league leaders defensively in several key categories. Their success will hinge upon the performance of #1 pick Alex Smith at quarterback, who may finally be ready to take over the club as the bonafide leader. Seattle is set at quarterback with Matt Hasselbeck, but he is aging and may not have all that much left in the tank. Off a 5-11 season, new head coach Pete Carroll has transformed the roster to his liking. How it does out of the gate is a big concern though. With San Francisco playing as a 2-point road favorite, recall the trend from earlier, divisional favorites of 3-points or less boast an incredible record 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
<b><i>ARIZONA (-3½, 41) at ST. LOUIS</b></i>
The NFC West Division is in head-to-head mode on Week 1, and the Rams have a chance to make a huge statement against an Arizona team that could be in a transitional year. The Cardinals are starting anew at quarterback after the retirement of Kurt Warner, and will be without a number of defensive contributors from their back-to-back division title teams as well. Perhaps a new start was in order anyway after HC ken Whisenhunt’s team allowed 90 points in two playoff games last January. The Rams hopefully hit rock bottom last year and will be on their way back up. With six wins in the last three years combined I don’t think things can get much worse. Getting better in division play is a must for them (8-22 ATS L5 seasons). St. Louis could be led by this April’s first overall draft pick, QB Sam Bradford. His early development will have a lot to do with how much ground this team can make up in 2010. Oddsmakers seem a bit leery of Arizona at this point, installing the Cardinals as just 3-1/2 point favorites. St. Louis will be look to get off to a better start than recent years, 1-10 ATS in the L3 September’s.
<b><i>DALLAS (-3/-125, 43) at WASHINGTON</b></i>
Donovan McNabb’s first season with Washington gets off to a potentially very interesting start when he and the Redskins host Dallas on NBC’s Sunday Night Football. Of course, McNabb isn’t the only new face in town, as HC Mike Shanahan arrives after taking the year off from football following a great run with Denver. The Redskins were just 4-12 last season and failed to even win a single divisional game. They will be fired up to be taking on what it believed to be a Super Bowl favorite in Dallas. The Cowboys were finally able to get over the playoff drought that had stricken the franchise for 15 years, as they beat Philly in a wildcard game last January. The so-called monkey may be off Tony Romo’s back. Not only do these teams not like one another, but the fact that McNabb moved from a team that was an equal rival to Dallas makes this contest very intriguing. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS run in this head-to-head series.
Monday, September 13
<b><i>BALTIMORE at NY JETS (-3/-105, 37½)</b></i>
The first of two Monday Night Football games on ESPN is an absolute dandy, as two of the expected favorites in the AFC go head-to-head. The Jets and Ravens both made noise in the playoffs last season, and each had made some noteworthy moves to take the next step this winter. On offense, the Ravens added wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Not to be outdone, the Jets traded for WR Santonio Holmes and picked up RB Ladanian Tomlinson. Not only that, but two of the league’s best defensive units will take the field. History shows that 58% of Week 1 games have gone UNDER the total over the last decade. This one certainly has the potential. Judging by the numbers, oddsmakers place these teams on equal levels, with only the 3-points for home field advantage separating them. The Jets are playing their first game in their New Meadowlands home.
<b><i>SAN DIEGO (-6, 45) at KANSAS CITY</b></i>
The nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader, and the game that wraps up the Week 1 slate pits San Diego versus Kansas City in an AFC West Division duel at Arrowhead Stadium. San Diego is going for its fifth straight divisional title this season and is an overwhelming favorite to do so. The Chargers have much bigger goals though, and they concern the postseason, where success has been harder to come by. Of course, it might help for Norv Turner’s team to get off to a better start than it has recently, as they were 2-3 after five games in each of the past three seasons. Kansas City hasn’t beaten San Diego since October ’07, a span of five games, and would like nothing more than to make a huge statement in front of a national audience. The Chiefs are expected to be improved after a 3-year run of winning just 10 games combined. Charlie Weis has joined HC Todd Haley’s staff to run the offense while Romeo Crennel takes the reigns of the defense. While it may be tough to stomach taking K.C. here as the 6-point dog, note that when the difference in the teams’ PPG Margin from the prior year is 10.0 or greater, the team with the worse differential owns an 19-12 ATS (61%) record in Week 1 since 2001.
Good luck in your season preparation. Hopefully the 2010 StatFox Edge Football Annual is part of that process!
NFL: Early Sunday Kickoffs (1:05 PM ET, CBS & FOX)
2009-12-11
The early afternoon betting card in the NFL offers a huge 10-game board, loaded with numerous wagering opportunities. Among the highlight games, both remaining undefeated teams will be in action, while intra-conference division leaders will square off in Minnesota, and AFC wildcard contenders will go head-to-head in Jacksonville. Read on for a look at these games plus a Best Bet selection from the StatFox Platinum Sheet. Get more on all of the Sunday games by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages at Sportsbook.com.
(105) DENVER at (106) INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis remains unbeaten and is already in the uncomfortable position of wondering whether or not to rest starters in its remaining games. The rest of the AFC is hoping that the Colts don’t, as Denver is in the thick of a wildcard logjam at 8-4. For HC Jim Caldwell’s team, the Broncos represent the foe on their remaining schedule with the best record, thus potentially the greatest chance for getting knocked off. For the Broncos, this is the first of two tough remaining road games, but they are 4-2 SU & ATS away in ’09. These teams have become somewhat regular combatants in recent years, and Indy owns a 6-2 SU & ATS record in the series since ’02. In the L3 games in Indianapolis, the Colts are 3-0 SU & ATS with an average victory margin of 24.7 PPG.
(107) CINCINNATI at (108) MINNESOTA
Intra-conference division leaders collide in Minnesota, with each hoping to get closer to locking down their titles. The Vikings are 10-2 after losing at Arizona. The other loss was of course, at the hands of Cincinnati’s rival, the Steelers. The Bengals are 9-3, embarking on a road trip that features stops at the Metrodome and at San Diego. They will be the underdog in both, which may be a welcomed sign for Marvin Lewis, whose team is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS in the dog role this season. They are also 3-0 vs. the NFC and have gone 6-1 ATS in their L7 overall vs. the opposite conference. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS at home under Brad Childress in the L4 weeks of the regular season. The host has swept the L3 h2h meetings between these teams, winning by 17.7 PPG.
(115) NEW ORLEANS at (116) ATLANTA
Some experts have circled this game on the Saints calendar as the largest remaining obstacle in the quest to finish 16-0 in 2009. New Orleans has been at its best in the road favorite role of late, going 10-3 ATS under Sean Payton, including the failed cover at Washington this past week. The Saints are also 7-3 ATS on the divisional road in his tenure. Having already wrapped up the NFC South title, they’ll be looking to spoil the season of one of their rivals here. Atlanta is 6-6 after dropping one to Philadelphia last week and facing an uncertain immediate future with the injury status of QB Matt Ryan. The Falcons are now 3-1 ATS as a home dog under Mike Smith. Favorites are on a run of 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the L12 meetings between these teams in Atlanta.
(119) MIAMI at (120) JACKSONVILLE
Both from Florida, Miami and Jacksonville aren’t exactly rivals, as they meet more in the preseason than they do when it matters. In fact, this will be just the fifth all-time meeting, as each team looks to hang on in the AFC wildcard hunt. The Dolphins are still breathing after upsetting New England, but at 6-6 would need to win out vs. four other fellow contenders to even have a shot. The Jaguars are 7-5, and although their chances are better, their stats (-4.0 PPG margin) and upcoming schedule (Indy, at NE) suggest a postseason berth isn’t in their future either. Jacksonville moved to 2-4 ATS in ’09 at home after the loss to Houston and is 3-11 ATS in its L14 as host. In the h2h series, the Jaguars own a 3-1 SU & ATS edge, most recently in ’06 in Miami.
StatFox Steve sees some value on the Miami-Jacksonville tilt: This to me is an interesting FoxSheets’ system when you really sit down and analyze what it means: Play Against - Any team (JACKSONVILLE) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. (60-27 since 1983.) (69%, +30.3 units. Rating = 2*). The average line of the games in the system team -0.2. How I read it is that our fade team (Jacksonville in this case) has a winning record but played as a home dog last week and is only favored by a small amount this week. In other words, it seems to be a team not worthy of its winning record. I concur, since Jacksonville, despite its 7-5 record, is being outscored by 4.0 PPG. They have been horrible in the favorite role as well. At the same time, Miami has been a gritty team, particularly on the road under Tony Sparano: MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. I can’t tell you which team is the better team here, and with the way Jacksonville has played at home of late, I wouldn’t assign them much home field advantage. Therefore, the value lies with the Dolphins. Play: Miami +2.5
NFL: Late Afternoon Games (4:05 PM ET, CBS & FOX)
There are only three NFL games scheduled for late afternoon on Sunday, and only one of them means anything in the grand scope of the playoff picture, that being San Diego visiting Dallas. Still, for all three, Sportsbook.com has of course offered up a pointspread and total among other wagering possibilities, so they are all worthy of your attention. Here is a quick look at all three, with some key betting tidbits to consider.
(125) ST LOUIS at (126) TENNESSEE
Tennessee will look to start a new winning streak after its loss at Indianapolis snapped its string of five straight. The setback might have been the nail in the coffin of the Titans’ postseason hopes as well, as at 5-7, their chances are remote. Here, they’ll start a 3-game homestand against a St. Louis team that still has just one win in ’09 after falling in Chicago. The Rams have at least been competitive on the road, boasting a 4-2 ATS mark. St Louis is also on a 6-0 ATS run in road games vs. poor defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the L3 seasons. The Titans yield 6.0 YPP. They are 32-14 ATS vs. NFC under Jeff Fisher though. St. Louis has won the L2 meetings between these teams, including the Super Bowl in’00, but didn’t win ATS in either.
(127) WASHINGTON at (128) OAKLAND
Washington and Oakland play one of the uglier matchups of Week 14, and fittingly, the game has plenty of trends to match. Oakland is 0-6 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, with an average loss of 26.8-9.5. Washington is 15-29 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. The Raiders counter that by going 20-40 ATS in December games since 1992. Not to be outdone, Washington brings a 1-8 ATS record vs. AFC foes over the L3 seasons into this scintillating contest. The Redskins are hoping to extend a stretch of 3-0 SU & ATS by the visitor in the head-to-head series between these teams. In fairness to both franchises, the teams have been more competitive of late, Oakland 3-2 ATS in its L5, Washington has covered its L4.
(129) SAN DIEGO at (130) DALLAS
Dallas continues its most difficult stretch of the season when it hosts the red hot Chargers. San Diego has won seven straight games to reach 9-3 and has its sights set on a first round bye. Under Norv Turner, this has been the time of the year where the Chargers have played their best football, boasting an 8-2 ATS December mark. They are also 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams gaining >=5.65 yards per play in his tenure. Dallas averages a lofty 6.7 YPP but finds itself in a tight NFC East race after losing to New York. Since dropping the new stadium opener, the Cowboys have won five straight at home, holding three teams to a TD or less while going 4-1 ATS. They are on a 3-7 ATS slide vs. the AFC, including 2-3 ATS at home.
This Best Bet writeup can be found in the NFL TIPSHEET this week: It happened again on Sunday, Dallas melted down under the mounting playoff pressures of December. San Diego meanwhile, got it done for Norv Turner once again and has proven to be one of the best late season teams in the league. At this point, San Diego is actually one of the top teams overall in the NFL, and to get points with a club playing so well is a gift. What reason is there to think that the Cowboys are better than a team that has won seven straight games? After all, they couldn’t even beat a team that was ready to be left for dead in the Giants. Take a look at this trend on how San Diego snuffs out good offenses late in the year: SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 28.6, OPPONENT 18.8 - (Rating = 1*). Dallas will be fortunate to get those 19 points, in which case, I can’t see any way they beat the number. Play: San Diego +3
NFL: Top Trends for NFL Week 1
2009-09-09
We’re ready to kick off another exciting season in the National Football League, and here are a few of the top trends and latest analysis for the Week 1 games. All odds are courtesy of Sportsbook.com. Visit the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS and TEAM STATISTICS pages all weekend long for the rest of the key handicapping info.
Tennessee (+5) at Pittsburgh – Thursday 8:30 pm ET
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams
Pittsburgh is 24-8 as a home favorite between 3.5-10 points
Tennessee is 8-0 ATS in their last eight September games
This is a tough task for Tennessee as defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five Thursday opening nights. Everyone is waiting for quarterback Kerry Collins to morph back into the younger, more skittish version of himself, but he should be fine as long as he remains a ‘game manager.’
Pittsburgh doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses and their ‘strength of schedule’ is one of the easiest in the NFL. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is the Teflon Man once again. He seems completely unaffected by his recent injury scare and his sexual assault case.
Philadelphia (-1) at Carolina – Sunday 1 pm EST
Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS as a road favorite between .5-3 points
Carolina was 5-2-1 ATS at home in the regular season last year
Under is 12-4 in Carolina’s last 16 home games
Philly has moved from one-point underdogs to one-point ‘chalk’ even though they were 0-4 ATS in the preseason. Donovan McNabb will lead the offense for the first two games without the help of Mike Vick and the ‘Wildcat.’ The defense must prove it can win without coordinator Jim Johnson.
Carolina was 8-0 SU at home in the regular season last year, but all anyone remembers is the home playoff loss to Arizona. The Panthers were 0-4 both straight-up and ATS in the preseason and now have running back Jonathan Stewart and linebacker Jon Beason questionable for this game.
Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants – Sunday 4:15 pm EST
New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams
New York was 12-4 ATS in the regular season last year
Washington is 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games
Washington is predicted to be bottom-dwellers in the NFC East, but don’t fall asleep on this team. Quarterback Jason Campbell is looking much more comfortable in Coach Jim Zorn’s offense and the defense was already Top 5 before adding Albert Haynesworth. Zorn better hope it all comes together or he’ll be back in Seattle working at Starbucks.
New York has all the pieces in place for another Super Bowl run except number one receiver. There is plenty of talent at the position, but someone has to assume the role of jailed Plaxico Burress. If the Giants struggle early on, the pressure will mount on Eli Manning, especially with his new mammoth contract.
Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay – Sunday 8:20 pm EST
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
Chicago is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games
Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler has been all that was advertised so far, but his current group of receivers can’t compare with those on Denver last year. Cutler actually had a better quarterback rating on the road last year (89.3) than at home (83.2), and he’ll need to play great in this tough Lambeau matchup.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense looked great when they played in the preseason. Can you say Brett Favre who? While that has Packers fans suddenly confident heading into Sunday night, the real key is how fast the defense responds to Dom Capers’ multiple-look 3-4 scheme.
Buffalo (+10.5) at New England – Monday 7 pm EST
New England is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams
New England is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 1 games
Buffalo is having its share of drama already, but its surprisingly not coming from wide receiver Terrell Owens. Offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert has been fired this preseason after an anemic showing for the first team offense. However, Coach Dick Jauron says the Bills will stick with the no-huddle offense.
New England continues its purge of veteran defensive players. The latest to go is Richard Seymour who was traded to Oakland for a 2011 number one pick. Coach Bill Belichick feels he can win with his revamped defense, but the QB position is thinner than an old Kate Moss photo with the un-drafted Brian Hoyer the only backup.
Other Week 1 Odds
Sunday
Miami (+4) at Atlanta – 1 pm EST
Denver (+4) at Cincinnati – 1 pm EST
Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland – 1 pm EST
Jacksonville (+7) at Indianapolis – 1 pm EST
Detroit (+13) at New Orleans – 1 pm EST
Dallas (-5.5) at Tampa Bay – 1 pm EST
Kansas City (+10.5) at Baltimore – 1 pm EST
NY Jets (+4.5) at Houston – 1 pm EST
San Francisco (+6.5) at Arizona – 4:15 pm EST
St. Louis (+7.5) at Seattle – 4:15 pm EST
San Diego (-9) at Oakland – Monday 10:15 pm ET
NFL: Early NFL Kickoffs (1:00 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-12-19
The NFL is down to just two weeks remaining in the regular season, and Sunday’s board offers a big slate of key games. In fact, the early afternoon kickoffs are loaded with several contests affecting the playoff picture. Pittsburgh and Tennessee battle for the top spot in the AFC, New England hopes to stay atop the AFC East Division standings when it hosts playoff-bound Arizona, and Tampa Bay looks to improve its postseason prospects while eliminating San Diego from such consideration. Here’s a look at those games, including a Best Bet selection on one of them. Be sure to visit the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for the latest key information.
(105) PITTSBURGH at (106) TENNESSEE
Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North Division and a first round playoff bye with its win at Baltimore, but the work has just begun for the Steelers. On Sunday, they’ll look to take over the top spot in the AFC with a win at Tennessee. After the Titans’ loss at Houston, only one game separates these two teams. HC Jeff Fisher’s team, a 1-point home favorite, boasts a 15-3 ATS second-half record vs. good passing defenses (<= 175 PYPG allowed). The Steelers are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS on the road though and battle tested by one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. They are also on a 28-10 ATS run vs. elite teams winning 75% or more of their games. Predictably, the underdog holds the edge in the L9 games of this intense h2h series, 6-3 ATS. The OVER is 7-2 in that span.
(109) ARIZONA at (110) NEW ENGLAND
Apparently hungover from its division title clinching win in week 13, Ariozna didn’t wake up fully against Minnesota until down 28-0 in the second quarter last Sunday. Oddsmakers may envision a similar effort in New England, as the hosts are a lofty 9-point favorite. The game means a lot to the Patriots, who are in a 3-way tie atop the AFC East with two games to go. The unusually high line could have something to do with the Cards’ prior three trips this season to the northeast, as they allowed 128 points while going 0-3 SU & ATS. It will be the first time Arizona has visited New England since ’96. The Patriots have won the last four hh2 meetings, both SU & ATS. The matchup’s top trend finds HC Bill Belichick as 15-4 ATS vs. teams averaging >=260 PYPG.
(129) SAN DIEGO at (130) TAMPA BAY
San Diego needs help from the Bills up in Denver to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Chargers also have the tall task of trying to be the first team to beat the Buccaneers in Tampa. The Bucs are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, having outscored opponents by 11.1 PPG. HC John Gruden’s team also has playoff aspirations of its own and fell to third in the NFC wildcard race after the OT loss in Atlanta. They will be looking for help from the Vikings or Ravens. This will be the start of two straight season ending games at home vs. the AFC for Tampa, who is 6-2-1 ATS in its L9 in that scenario. The Chargers have allowed 268 PYPG and 7.3 PYA on the road in ‘08, but Gruden’s teams are 1-10 ATS in their L11 second half games vs. poor passing defenses allowing >=235 PYPG.
Platinum Sheet Best Bet Selection: Like the story Ol’ Yeller, San Diego is a worn out dog ready to be put out of its misery. After living to see another day this past week at Kansas City, Sunday’s trip to Tampa should be more than enough to put the final nail in San Diego coffin for ’08. The Bucs have been literally unbeatable at home this season, going 6-0 SU while outscoring teams by over 11 PPG. The only reason they bring a two-game losing streak into this contest is because they ran into not one, but two buzzsaws over the last couple of weeks, first at Carolina, then at Atlanta. The season schedule is much more favorable in the final two weeks for HC John Gruden’s club, and I fully expect to see them in the postseason assuming QB Jeff Garcia plays. Outplay Factor Ratings say this line should be Tampa Bay -5.7. Anything less than that is worth playing. Play: Tampa Bay minus the points
NFL: Sunday Late Afternoon NFL Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-10-10
Of the four late afternoon games in the NFL, ALL are important in some way or another to the playoff chases in each conference. Of course, when you’re betting, the only games that mean more are the ones you have wagering tickets on. With that thought in mind, here’s is a look at each of the four games to choose from with kickoffs in the 4 o’clock hour.
(219) JACKSONVILLE at (220) DENVER (-3, 48.5)
Jacksonville will be looking to win in Denver for the second straight season, while the Broncos will be looking to finish off a home game for its backers for the first time in ’08. Despite being 3-0 thus far at Invesco Field, Denver has yet to beat a Vegas pointspread, failing to cover minor numbers of -1.5, -4.5, and -3.5. For those who have seen Mike Shanahan’s team go just 5-15 ATS in their L20 home games, the results shouldn’t come as a surprise. Still, they find themselves 4-1 after five weeks and in control of the AFC West Division. Jacksonville heads into its open date after this game and is 3-0 SU & ATS in its L3 in that scenario, including the 23-14 ’07 win in Denver. Overall in this head-to-head series, the underdog is on a 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS run.
* StatFox Forecaster says Jacksonville 28, Denver 26
(221) PHILADELPHIA (-5, 42.5) at (222) SAN FRANCISCO
Two teams whose playoff aspirations have begun slipping away in the last couple of weeks will try to revive those hopes this Sunday when they go head-to-head. Both Philadelphia and San Francisco have lost back-to-back games after 2-1 starts. The Eagles will be looking to extend a 23-10 SU & 18-14 ATS record as a road favorite. Incidentally, the favorite is also 6-2 ATS in the L8 games between these teams. The last four have gone OVER the total. The 49ers will be looking for a first win against a NFC East team under Mike Nolan. They are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS versus that division in 3+ seasons. Not all angles are in Philadelphia’s favor however, as HC Andy Reid’s team is just 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in games prior to their bye week, which comes after this contest.
* StatFox Prediction: 49ers cover
(223) DALLAS (-4.5, 50.5) at (224) ARIZONA
As former divisional rivals, the Dallas-Arizona rivalry became a heated one, as Cowboys’ fans regularly made the trip to Phoenix to secure an unofficial 9th home game each season. Now, with Cardinals’ fans’ support growing with a 3-2 start, they’ll welcome 4-1 Dallas back to town. HC Ken Whisenhunt’s team is establishing a definite home field advantage for the first time in years, having gone 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in his year-plus with the club. The latest win was a 41-17 thrashing of previously unbeaten Buffalo, meaning they’ve poured in 34.7 PPG in their last seven as hosts. Dallas is 0-3 ATS at home, but 2-0 ATS on the road. As road chalk of 3.5-7 points, the Cowboys are 13-4 ATS in their L17 chances. They are also on a 10-3 ATS run vs. Arizona overall.
* StatFox Power Rating Line says Dallas by 2
(225) GREEN BAY at (226) SEATTLE (-2, 46.5)
Three straight losses have QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers reeling, and they’ll need to turn it around in Seattle, a place they haven’t won at since ’96. To be fair, Green Bay has only played in Seattle once since that time, losing to former coach Mike Holmgren 34-24 in ’06. Still, it’s unfamiliar territory for Rodgers, who has struggled since the 2-0 start in replacing Brett Favre. Holmgren’s team dropped to 7-27 ATS in October under his watch with the ugly 44-6 defeat at New York last week. They are allowing 31 PPG defensively and five of their L7 opponents have topped the 30-point mark. Including Green Bay’s 42-20 playoff win of last January, the OVER is 4-1 in the L5 meetings of these teams. Green Bay is 13-5 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.
* StatFox Outplay Factor Rating says Green Bay by 6
NFL - San Francisco at Seattle
2007-11-09
The Monday night game offers up a divisional showdown between rivals of the NFC West. No team is over .500 in this brutal division, so Seattle maintains control of the lead with a 4-4 record.
The Seahawks are off a disappointing 33-30 OT loss at Cleveland in which they gave up a 21-6 lead. It was the second time in ’07 that the offense scored both 30 points and gained at least 400 yards, so there are signs that the sputtering unit is coming to life. Speaking of struggling offenses, the 49ers are the league’s worst in yards per game (224.2) and yards per play (4.2). They have lost six straight games and are 1-5 ATS in that span. HC Mike Nolan’s teams are 6-12 ATS as road underdogs, but 5-4 ATS as double-digit dogs, which they are here at +10. In last year’s game between these teams at Seattle, the 49ers won outright, 24-14 as 10-point dogs.
The Niners started with a bang but have since found NFL life unrewarding, going 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS heading into this week’s matchup with division foe Seattle. The offense has sputtered with various injuries hampering the effort and a lack of power provided by the rushing attack. The offensive line has failed to support the momentum built last season and now must find a way to reverse fortunes if San Fran is going to challenge for wins. The defense is strong is more than capable despite giving up too many rushing yards, but their strength will never be realized until the offensive support comes forth.
Seattle may be one of the more frustrating units in the professional ranks this season. The offense is loaded with potential but has failed to formulate a means of consistent success. The defense is on the verge of joining the great units in the game but will falter against a strong rushing attack. There is nothing about this squad that shines, evidenced by the 4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, and 3-4-1 O/U records thus far. However, this team has put San Fran in their place once this season and faces a great opportunity to build much-needed momentum once again.
Keys to the Game –This NFC West matchup looked like a sure–fire winner before the season started; however, San Francisco has fallen flat on their faces. Injuries have limited offense, still to be this dreadful at this point of the season points to players not holding up there end of the bargain. The Niners are once again dogs to Seattle, just like they have been the previous six times. Many of the elements are in place for Seattle, but like child’s toy – assembly required. As loud and proud Seattle fans are and with how good the Seahawks have been under Mike Holmgren, they are 7-1 ATS at Qwest Field when a touchdown or more home favorite.
Trends
- The SU winner of Seattle MNF games is 20-0-1 ATS.
- San Fran is 5-2 ATS as a MNF road underdog.
StatFox Pick – Seahawks minus points