Green Bay makes its third trip to Arizona since August when the Packers and Cardinals go head-to-head to wrap up the wildcard round. On both previous occasions, once in the preseason, the Packers jumped out to a huge lead, and just this past Sunday, led 2

2010-01-09

Green Bay makes its third trip to Arizona since August when the Packers and Cardinals go head-to-head to wrap up the wildcard round. On both previous occasions, once in the preseason, the Packers jumped out to a huge lead, and just this past Sunday, led 26-0 at the half before finishing off a 33-7 win. Experts & bettors alike seem love the Packers, despite the fact that Arizona is the defending NFC champ. At last check on the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends page, 85% of bettors were on the side of the Packers, and the line had moved from Arizona -2.5 to a pick em’.

Arizona finished 10-6, and Green Bay 11-5, yet it is the Cardinals that are field goal favorites at presstime, as they look for a second straight NFC title. HC Ken Whisenhunt’s team was just 4-4 SU & ATS at home in ’09, but is 9-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss in his tenure. Green Bay boasts a 22-9 ATS mark under Mike McCarthy on the road including 6-0 ATS vs. NFC West teams. The Packers haven’t played a road playoff game since after the ’03 season.

Forget the 26-point win as a statement game for Green Bay, because Arizona pulled Kurt Warner in the first quarter then watched as backups Matt Leinart and Brian St. Pierre completed 15 of 25 passes for 108 yards with three interceptions.

No team in the NFC is on a roll quite like the Packers, who won seven of their last eight thanks in large part to the improved protection of Aaron Rodgers and better production by Ryan Grant in the second half of the season (632 yards, seven scores). Rodgers, sacked 37 times in the first eight games, was sacked just 13 times in the last eight and guided the offense to an average of 30.7 points.

The Cardinals didn’t offer the same type of scoring consistency down the stretch, posting more than 30 points three times in the last five games and less than 10 points twice. Green Bay’s defense ranked second in the NFL in total yards (284.5), but despite the presence of cornerback Charles Woodson (nine interceptions, four forced fumbles, three touchdowns) still struggled against the pass. Teams completed 49 throws of more than 20 yards, and Green Bay allowed more receiving touchdowns than only three teams. It’s not exactly a match made in heaven, considering four Arizona players notched at least 50 catches.

It’s also worth noting the Packers are back on the road, where four of their five wins came against teams below .500, and the fifth was against the depleted Cardinals.
But of all the stats that will be thrown around leading up to the wild-card matchup, here are a few that stick out the most—Green Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 playoff games and dropped three straight on the road.

Arizona, meanwhile, boasts nearly the same team that took the long route to last season’s Super Bowl, winning three playoff games before falling to Pittsburgh.

PREDICTION: Warner, a playoff veteran, is 8-3 all-time in the postseason with three Super Bowl appearances (one win). Rodgers, on the other hand, makes his playoff debut. The experience factor makes the difference. ARIZONA 24, GREEN BAY 17

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