Tonight is the first of six consecutive Thursday games on the NFL Network package. These games have tended to be mediocre matchups historically, as the league tries not to anger the other networks that help keep the coffers nicely stocked with cash. This

2009-11-13

Tonight is the first of six consecutive Thursday games on the NFL Network package. These games have tended to be mediocre matchups historically, as the league tries not to anger the other networks that help keep the coffers nicely stocked with cash. This week’s game pits the Chicago Bears at the San Francisco 49ers. The hosts are field goal favorites, with a total of 43.5 at Sportsbook.com. Not surprisingly, bettors are backing the favorites and OVER on the total.

The Setup
The first Thursday night game of the NFL season pits two fringe playoff contenders in the NFC against one another. San Francisco (3-5, 5-2-1 ATS) is playing at home and as the small favorite, which could prove important, since favorites are 24-6 ATS on Thursday games going back five seasons. It’s also notable since favorites are on a run of 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these teams, each time the host club in the role of the chalk. The 49ers are on a four-game losing skid, but have won five of last seven at home. Chicago (4-4 SU&ATS) is on a 25-11 ATS run on the road in November, but just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, being outscored by 10.5 points per game while turning the ball over 13 times. The Bears are not playing well, having lost three of their last four tries.

Why Watch
Mike Singletary is a legend in Chicago, for his fiery play and intensity (those bulging eyes shots are classic) and ended up the Hall of Fame. Now he faces his old team as the coach.

Though it was before Singletary was head coach, a bit of bad blood exists between these teams’ front offices. In 2006, the Bears brought tampering charges against the 49ers for pursuing linebacker Lance Briggs, who was in the midst of a contract dispute with the Bears. The NFL ruled against San Fran, and they were docked a fifth-round pick in the 2008 draft.

This contest features two of the better tight ends on the NFC with Vernon Davis and Greg Olson, the latter coming off three touchdown game.

Which quarterback will throw more game-changing interceptions to drive sport bettor insane? Alex Smith has five picks in basically 2.5 games and Jay Cutler has just what you get at Dunkin Donuts, a dozen.

Why Wager
Do you really care about the NBA yet? Yeah, didn’t think so. The Bears are 6-0 ATS having lost three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 8-16 ATS after allowing 28 or more points.

Some might be of the opinion Chicago is more done than the last of the leaves that were just raked up and the Bears are 1-8 ATS after gaining six or more yards play in their previous game. Besides, the Niners are 5-2-1 ATS after an L.

The Line
Sportsbook.com has 49ers by 3 with total of 43.5.

What Happens
The aforementioned Mr. Briggs steps his play up and tries to compensate for crummy secondary by playing the run like a stud and blitzes QB Smith into mistakes. Defensive lineman Tommie Harris finally decides to play football and not look like the second coming of Alonzo Spellman. The Chicago wide receivers are the worst in the NFL and most have no clue how to run deep routes. Throw short and hope they make a move to use exceptional speed.

Of course for every action there is a reaction and San Francisco would be making a huge mistake not keeping Smith in the shotgun as much as possible. He’s obviously more comfortable in it from his college days and reads the field better. Remember the strength of the offense was supposed to be the line, ask Frank Gore what he thinks about that notion with all his one and two yard gains. Block somebody. Excuse the 49ers secondary if they smile a lot facing the Bears wideouts, put any kind of pressure on Cutler and they are covered like blanket.

The Outcome
The StatFox Forecaster picks San Francisco to cover in a 23-19 decision, meaning the chalk players would be happy at Sportsbook.com tonight, but the OVER bettors might give it back.

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